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Register a new userQualitative Probabilistic Networks for Planning Under Uncertainty
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Added by
Michael P. Wellman
Publication date
2013
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
Authors
Michael P. Wellman
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Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the conclusions are much weaker than those computed from complete probability distributions, they are still valuable for suggesting potential actions, eliminating obviously inferior plans, identifying important tradeoffs, and explaining probabilistic models.
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This paper deals with enriched qualitative belief functions for reasoning under uncertainty and for combining information expressed in natural language through linguistic labels. In this work, two possible enrichments (quantitative and/or qualitative) of linguistic labels are considered and operators (addition, multiplication, division, etc) for dealing with them are proposed and explained. We denote them $qe$-operators, $qe$ standing for qualitative-enriched operators. These operators can be seen as a direct extension of the classical qualitative operators ($q$-operators) proposed recently in the Dezert-Smarandache Theory of plausible and paradoxist reasoning (DSmT). $q$-operators are also justified in details in this paper. The quantitative enrichment of linguistic label is a numerical supporting degree in $[0,infty)$, while the qualitative enrichment takes its values in a finite ordered set of linguistic values. Quantitative enrichment is less precise than qualitative enrichment, but it is expected more close with what human experts can easily provide when expressing linguistic labels with supporting degrees. Two simple examples are given to show how the fusion of qualitative-enriched belief assignments can be done.
Planning under model uncertainty is a fundamental problem across many applications of decision making and learning. In this paper, we propose the Robust Adaptive Monte Carlo Planning (RAMCP) algorithm, which allows computation of risk-sensitive Bayes-adaptive policies that optimally trade off exploration, exploitation, and robustness. RAMCP formulates the risk-sensitive planning problem as a two-player zero-sum game, in which an adversary perturbs the agents belief over the models. We introduce t
It is a long-standing objective to ease the computation burden incurred by the decision making process. Identification of this mechanisms sensitivity to simplification has tremendous ramifications. Yet, algorithms for decision making under uncertainty usually lean on approximations or heuristics without quantifying their effect. Therefore, challenging scenarios could severely impair the performance of such methods. In this paper, we extend the decision making mechanism to the whole by removing standard approximations and considering all previously suppressed stochastic sources of variability. On top of this extension, our key contribution is a novel framework to simplify decision making while assessing and controlling online the simplifications impact. Furthermore, we present novel stochastic bounds on the return and characterize online the effect of simplification using this framework on a particular simplification technique - reducing the number of samples in belief representation for planning. Finally, we verify the advantages of our approach through extensive simulations.
Functional dependencies restrict the potential interactions among variables connected in a probabilistic network. This restriction can be exploited in qualitative probabilistic reasoning by introducing deterministic variables and modifying the inference rules to produce stronger conclusions in the presence of functional relations. I describe how to accomplish these modifications in qualitative probabilistic networks by exhibiting the update procedures for graphical transformations involving probabilistic and deterministic variables and combinations. A simple example demonstrates that the augmented scheme can reduce qualitative ambiguity that would arise without the special treatment of functional dependency. Analysis of qualitative synergy reveals that new higher-order relations are required to reason effectively about synergistic interactions among deterministic variables.
We consider the problem of designing policies for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with dynamic coherent risk objectives. Synthesizing risk-averse optimal policies for POMDPs requires infinite memory and thus undecidable. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a method based on bounded policy iteration for designing stochastic but finite state (memory) controllers, which takes advantage of standard convex optimization methods. Given a memory budget and optimality criterion, the proposed method modifies the stochastic finite state controller leading to sub-optimal solutions with lower coherent risk.
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