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Register a new userDetecting range expansions from genetic data
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We propose a method that uses genetic data to test for the occurrence of a recent range expansion and to infer the location of the origin of the expansion. We introduce a statistic for pairs of populations $psi$ (the directionality index) that detects asymmetries in the two-dimensional allele frequency spectrum caused by the series of founder events that happen during an expansion. Such asymmetry arises because low frequency alleles tend to be lost during founder events, thus creating clines in the frequencies of surviving low-frequency alleles. Using simulations, we further show that $psi$ is more powerful for detecting range expansions than both $F_{ST}$ and clines in heterozygosity. We illustrate the utility of $psi$ by applying it to a data set from modern humans and show how we can include more complicated scenarios such as multiple expansion origins or barriers to migration in the model.
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Coalescent theory combined with statistical modeling allows us to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. When sequences are sampled serially through time and the distribution of the sampling times depends on the effective population size, explicit statistical modeling of sampling times improves population size estimation. Previous work assumed that the genealogy relating sampled sequences is known and modeled sampling times as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with log-intensity equal to a linear function of the log-transformed effective population size. We improve this approach in two ways. First, we extend the method to allow for joint Bayesian estimation of the genealogy, effective population size trajectory, and other model parameters. Next, we improve the sampling time model by incorporating additional sources of information in the form of time-varying covariates. We validate our new modeling framework using a simulation study and apply our new methodology to analyses of population dynamics of seasonal influenza and to the recent Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa.
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A molecular dynamics calculation of the amino acid polar requirement is presented and used to score the canonical genetic code. Monte Carlo simulation shows that this computational polar requirement has been optimized by the canonical genetic code more than any previously-known measure. These results strongly support the idea that the genetic code evolved from a communal state of life prior to the root of the modern ribosomal tree of life.
Biological systems are typically highly open, non-equilibrium systems that are very challenging to understand from a statistical mechanics perspective. While statistical treatments of evolutionary biological systems have a long and rich history, examination of the time-dependent non-equilibrium dynamics has been less studied. In this paper we first derive a generalized master equation in the genotype space for diploid organisms incorporating the processes of selection, mutation, recombination, and reproduction. The master equation is defined in terms of continuous time and can handle an arbitrary number of gene loci and alleles, and can be defined in terms of an absolute population or probabilities. We examine and analytically solve several prototypical cases which illustrate the interplay of the various processes and discuss the timescales of their evolution. The entropy production during the evolution towards steady state is calculated and we find that it agrees with predictions from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics where it is large when the population distribution evolves towards a more viable genotype. The stability of the non-equilibrium steady state is confirmed using the Glansdorff-Prigogine criterion.
Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-- diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically , the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.
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