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Register a new userRecent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling
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The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earths atmosphere. Motivated by these results, we summarize here our current knowledge of SSI variability and its impact on Earths climate. We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measurements and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earths atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the stratosphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We investigate these direct and indirect effects using several state-of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and modeled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of a common comprehensive approach for an issue that is usually addressed separately by different communities. Omissis. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the available data and we propose additional coordinated work, first to build composite SSI datasets out of scattered observations and to refine current SSI models, and second, to run coordinated CCM experiments.
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Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Suns radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable the reconstruction of historical TSI. Revisions to the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial time scales according to the model reconstruction methodologies. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885 but leads to greater amplitude solar-cycle fluctuations in TSI reconstructions prior, suggesting many 18th and 19th century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and comparing that era to the present we find only very small potential differences in estimated solar contributions to climate with this new sunspot record.
Total solar irradiance (TSI) has been monitored from space since 1978. The measurements show a prominent variability in phase with the solar cycle, as well as fluctuations on timescales shorter than a few days. However, the measurements were done by multiple and usually relatively short-lived missions making the possible long-term trend in the TSI highly uncertain. While the variability in the UV irradiance is clearly in-phase with the solar cycle, the phase of the variability in the visible range has been debated. In this paper, we aim at getting an insight into the long-term trend of TSI since 1996 and the phase of the solar irradiance variations in the visible part of the spectrum. We use independent ground-based full-disc photometric observations in Ca~II~K and continuum from the Rome and San Fernando observatories to compute the TSI since 1996. We follow the empirical San Fernando approach based on the photometric sum index. We find a weak declining trend in the TSI of -7.8$^{+4.9}_{-0.8}times10^{-3}$ Wm$^{-2}$y$^{-1}$ between the 1996 and 2008 activity minima, while between 2008 and 2019 the reconstructed TSI shows no trend to a marginally decreasing (but statistically insignificant) trend of -0.1$^{+0.25}_{-0.02}times10^{-3}$ Wm$^{-2}$y$^{-1}$. The reference TSI series used for the reconstruction does not significantly affect the determined trend. The variation in the blue continuum (409.2 nm) is rather flat, while the variation in the red continuum (607.1 nm) is marginally in anti-phase, although this result is extremely sensitive to the accurate assessment of the quiet Sun level in the images. These results provide further insights into the long-term variation of the total solar irradiance. The amplitude of the variations in the visible is below the uncertainties of the processing, which prevents an assessment of the phase of the variations.
We aim to gain insight into the effect of network and faculae on solar irradiance from their apparent intensity. Taking full-disc observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we examined the intensity contrast of network and faculae in the continuum and core of the Fe I 6173 {AA} line and 1700 {AA}, including the variation with magnetic flux density, distance from disc centre, nearby magnetic fields, and time. The brightness of network and faculae is believed to be suppressed by nearby magnetic fields from its effect on convection. The difference in intensity contrast between the quiet-Sun network and active region faculae, noted by various studies, arises because active regions are more magnetically crowded and is not due to any fundamental physical differences between network and faculae. These results highlight that solar irradiance models need to include the effect of nearby magnetic fields on network and faculae brightness. We found evidence that suggests that departures from local thermal equilibrium (LTE) might have limited effect on intensity contrast. This could explain why solar irradiance models that are based on the intensity contrast of solar surface magnetic features calculated assuming LTE reproduce the observed spectral variability even where the LTE assumption breaks down. Certain models of solar irradiance employ chromospheric indices as direct indications of the effect of network and faculae on solar irradiance. Based on past studies of the Ca II K line and on the intensity contrast measurements derived here, we show that the fluctuations in chromospheric emission from network and faculae are a reasonable estimate of the emission fluctuations in the middle photosphere, but not of those in the lower photosphere. The data set, which extends from 2010 to 2018, indicates that intensity contrast was stable to about 3% in this period.
Solar photospheric magnetic field plays a dominant role in the variability of total solar irradiance (TSI). The modulation of magnetic flux at six specific ranges on TSI is characterized for the first time. The daily flux values of magnetic field at four ranges are extracted from MDI/{sl SOHO}, together with daily flux of active regions (MF$_{text{ar}}$) and quiet regions (MF$_{text{qr}}$); the first four ranges (MF$_{1-4}$) are: 1.5--2.9, 2.9--32.0, 32.0--42.7, and 42.7--380.1 ($times 10^{18}$ Mx per element), respectively. Cross-correlograms show that MF$_4$, MF$_{text{qr}}$, and MF$_{text{ar}}$ are positively correlated with TSI, while MF$_2$ is negatively correlated with TSI; the correlations between MF$_1$, MF$_3$ and TSI are insignificant. The bootstrapping tests confirm that the impact of MF$_4$ on TSI is more significant than that of MF$_{text{ar}}$ and MF$_{text{qr}}$, and MF$_{text{ar}}$ leads TSI by one rotational period. By extracting the rotational variations in the MFs and TSI, the modulations of the former on the latter at the solar rotational timescale are clearly illustrated and compared during solar maximum and minimum times, respectively. Comparison of the relative amplitudes of the long-term variation show that TSI is in good agreement with the variation of MF$_4$ and MF$_{text{ar}}$; besides, MF$_2$ is in antiphase with TSI, and it lags the latter by about 1.5 years.
Changes in solar irradiance and in its spectral distribution are among the main natural drivers of the climate on Earth. However, irradiance measurements are only available for less than four decades, while assessment of solar influence on Earth requires much longer records. The aim of this work is to provide the most up-to-date physics-based reconstruction of the solar total and spectral irradiance (TSI/SSI) over the last nine millennia. The concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in natural archives have been converted to decadally averaged sunspot numbers through a chain of physics-based models. TSI and SSI are reconstructed with an updated SATIRE model. Reconstructions are carried out for each isotope record separately, as well as for their composite. We present the first ever SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years from the individual 14C and 10Be records as well as from their newest composite. The reconstruction employs physics-based models to describe the involved processes at each step of the procedure. Irradiance reconstructions based on two different cosmogenic isotope records, those of 14C and 10Be, agree well with each other in their long-term trends despite their different geochemical paths in the atmosphere of Earth. Over the last 9000 years, the reconstructed secular variability in TSI is of the order of 0.11%, or 1.5 W/m2. After the Maunder minimum, the reconstruction from the cosmogenic isotopes is consistent with that from the direct sunspot number observation. Furthermore, over the nineteenth century, the agreement of irradiance reconstructions using isotope records with the reconstruction from the sunspot number by Chatzistergos et al. (2017) is better than that with the reconstruction from the WDC-SILSO series (Clette et al. 2014), with a lower chi-square-value.
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