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Register a new userThe Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine
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We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a perpetual money machine type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s, consumption has been increasingly funded by smaller savings, booming financial profits, wealth extracted from house price appreciation and explosive debt. This is in stark contrast with the productivity-fueled growth that was seen in the 1950s and 1960s. This transition, starting in the early 1980s, was further supported by a climate of deregulation and a massive growth in financial derivatives designed to spread and diversify the risks globally. The result has been a succession of bubbles and crashes, including the worldwide stock market bubble and great crash of October 1987, the savings and loans crisis of the 1980s, the burst in 1991 of the enormous Japanese real estate and stock market bubbles, the emerging markets bubbles and crashes in 1994 and 1997, the LTCM crisis of 1998, the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, the recent house price bubbles, the financialization bubble via special investment vehicles, the stock market bubble, the commodity and oil bubbles and the debt bubbles, all developing jointly and feeding on each other. Rather than still hoping that real wealth will come out of money creation, we need fundamentally new ways of thinking. In uncertain times, it is essential, more than ever, to think in scenarios: what can happen in the future, and, what would be the effect on your wealth and capital? How can you protect against adverse scenarios? We thus end by examining the question what can we do? from the macro level, discussing the fundamental issue of incentives and of constructing and predicting scenarios as well as developing investment insights.
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This review is about the convenience, the benefits, as well as the destructive capacities of money. It deals with various aspects of money creation, with its value, and its appropriation. All sorts of money tend to get corrupted by eventually creating too much of them. In the long run, this renders money worthless and deprives people holding it. This misuse of money creation is inevitable and should come as no surprise. Abusive money creation comes in various forms. In the present fiat money system suspended in free thought and sustained merely by our belief in and our conditioning to it, money is conveniently created out of thin air by excessive government spending and speculative credit creation. Alas, any too tight money supply could ruin an economy by inviting all sorts of unfriendly takeovers, including wars or competition. Therefore the ambivalence of money as benefactor and destroyer should be accepted as destiny.
In this paper, we reveal the depreciation mechanism of representative money (banknotes) from the perspective of logistics warehousing costs. Although it has long been the dream of economists to stabilize the buying power of the monetary units, the goal we have honest money always broken since the central bank depreciate the currency without limit. From the point of view of modern logistics, the key functions of money are the store of value and low logistics (circulation and warehouse) cost. Although commodity money (such as gold and silver) has the advantages of a wealth store, its disadvantage is the high logistics cost. In comparison to commodity money, credit currency and digital currency cannot protect wealth from loss over a long period while their logistics costs are negligible. We proved that there is not such honest money from the perspective of logistics costs, which is both the store of value like precious metal and without logistics costs in circulation like digital currency. The reason hidden in the back of the depreciation of banknotes is the black hole of storage charge of the anchor overtime after digitizing commodity money. Accordingly, it is not difficult to infer the inevitable collapse of the Bretton woods system. Therefore, we introduce a brand-new currency named honest devalued stable-coin and built a attenuation model of intrinsic value of the honest money based on the change mechanism of storage cost of anchor assets, like gold, which will lay the theoretical foundation for a stable monetary system.
The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of 7,796 worldwide companies for the period 2004 through 2013. We develop a panel regression model using three financial indicators--dividends per share, cash flow per share, and book value per share--as explanatory variables for share price. We then estimate individual company fundamentals for each year by removing the time fixed effects from the two-way fixed effects model, which we identified as the best of the panel regression models. One merit of our model is that we are able to extract unobservable factors of company fundamentals by using the individual fixed effects. Based on these results, we analyze the market anomaly quantitatively using the divergence rate--the rate of the deviation of share price from a companys fundamentals. We find that share prices on average were overvalued in the period from 2005 to 2007, and were undervalued significantly in 2008, when the global financial crisis occurred. Share prices were equivalent to the fundamentals on average in the subsequent period. Our empirical results clearly demonstrate that the worldwide stock market fluctuated excessively in the time period before and just after the global financial crisis of 2008.
Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic collective objects (large individual wealth, highly productive geographical locations, emergent technologies, emergent economic sectors) in which the micro-economic agents self-organize. In particular, we present some theoretical predictions, which also met extensive validation from empirical data in a wide range of systems: - The fractal Levy exponent of the stock market index fluctuations equals the Pareto exponent of the investors wealth distribution. The origin of the macroeconomic dynamics is therefore found in the granularity induced by the wealth / capital of the wealthiest investors. - Economic cycles consist of a Schumpeter creative destruction pattern whereby the maxima are cusp-shaped while the minima are smooth. In between the cusps, the cycle consists of the sum of 2 crossing exponentials: one decaying and the other increasing. This unification within the same theoretical framework of short term market fluctuations and long term economic cycles offers the perspective of a genuine conceptual synthesis between micro- and macroeconomics. Joining another giant of contemporary science - Phil Anderson - Aoki emphasized the role of rare, large fluctuations in the emergence of macroeconomic phenomena out of microscopic interactions and in particular their non self-averaging, in the language of statistical physics. In this light, we present a simple stochastic multi-sector growth model.
Continuous-time random walks are a well suited tool for the description of market behaviour at the smallest scale: the tick-to-tick evolution. We will apply this kind of market model to the valuation of perpetual American options: derivatives with no maturity that can be exercised at any time. Our approach leads to option prices that fulfil financial formulas when canonical assumptions on the dynamics governing the process are made, but it is still suitable for more exotic market conditions.
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