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Register a new userTwitterPaul: Extracting and Aggregating Twitter Predictions
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Naushad UzZaman Naushad UzZaman
Publication date
2012
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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This paper introduces TwitterPaul, a system designed to make use of Social Media data to help to predict game outcomes for the 2010 FIFA World Cup tournament. To this end, we extracted over 538K mentions to football games from a large sample of tweets that occurred during the World Cup, and we classified into different types with a precision of up to 88%. The different mentions were aggregated in order to make predictions about the outcomes of the actual games. We attempt to learn which Twitter users are accurate predictors and explore several techniques in order to exploit this information to make more accurate predictions. We compare our results to strong baselines and against the betting line (prediction market) and found that the quality of extractions is more important than the quantity, suggesting that high precision methods working on a medium-sized dataset are preferable over low precision methods that use a larger amount of data. Finally, by aggregating some classes of predictions, the system performance is close to the one of the betting line. Furthermore, we believe that this domain independent framework can help to predict other sports, elections, product release dates and other future events that people talk about in social media.
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In real-time, social media data strongly imprints world events, popular culture, and day-to-day conversations by millions of ordinary people at a scale that is scarcely conventionalized and recorded. Vitally, and absent from many standard corpora such as books and news archives, sharing and commenting mechanisms are native to social media platforms, enabling us to quantify social amplification (i.e., popularity) of trending storylines and contemporary cultural phenomena. Here, we describe Storywrangler, a natural language processing instrument designed to carry out an ongoing, day-scale curation of over 100 billion tweets containing roughly 1 trillion 1-grams from 2008 to 2021. For each day, we break tweets into unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams spanning over 100 languages. We track n-gram usage frequencies, and generate Zipf distributions, for words, hashtags, handles, numerals, symbols, and emojis. We make the data set available through an interactive time series viewer, and as downloadable time series and daily distributions. Although Storywrangler leverages Twitter data, our method of extracting and tracking dynamic changes of n-grams can be extended to any similar social media platform. We showcase a few examples of the many possible avenues of study we aim to enable including how social amplification can be visualized through contagiograms. We also present some example case studies that bridge n-gram time series with disparate data sources to explore sociotechnical dynamics of famous individuals, box office success, and social unrest.
On social media platforms, like Twitter, users are often interested in gaining more influence and popularity by growing their set of followers, aka their audience. Several studies have described the properties of users on Twitter based on static snapshots of their follower network. Other studies have analyzed the general process of link formation. Here, rather than investigating the dynamics of this process itself, we study how the characteristics of the audience and follower links change as the audience of a user grows in size on the road to users popularity. To begin with, we find that the early followers tend to be more elite users than the late followers, i.e., they are more likely to have verified and expert accounts. Moreover, the early followers are significantly more similar to the person that they follow than the late followers. Namely, they are more likely to share time zone, language, and topics of interests with the followed user. To some extent, these phenomena are related with the growth of Twitter itself, wherein the early followers tend to be the early adopters of Twitter, while the late followers are late adopters. We isolate, however, the effect of the growth of audiences consisting of followers from the growth of Twitters user base itself. Finally, we measure the engagement of such audiences with the content of the followed user, by measuring the probability that an early or late follower becomes a retweeter.
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