We present the asymptotic distribution for two-sided tests based on the profile likelihood ratio with lower and upper boundaries on the parameter of interest. This situation is relevant for branching ratios and the elements of unitary matrices such as the CKM matrix.
We describe likelihood-based statistical tests for use in high energy physics for the discovery of new phenomena and for construction of confidence intervals on model parameters. We focus on the properties of the test procedures that allow one to account for systematic uncertainties. Explicit formulae for the asymptotic distributions of test statistics are derived using results of Wilks and Wald. We motivate and justify the use of a representative data set, called the Asimov data set, which provides a simple method to obtain the median experimental sensitivity of a search or measurement as well as fluctuations about this expectation.
The Fisher-Bingham distribution ($mathrm{FB}_8$) is an eight-parameter family of probability density functions (PDF) on $S^2$ that, under certain conditions, reduce to spherical analogues of bivariate normal PDFs. Due to difficulties in computing its overall normalization constant, applications have been mainly restricted to subclasses of $mathrm{FB}_8$, such as the Kent ($mathrm{FB}_5$) or von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distributions. However, these subclasses often do not adequately describe directional data that are not symmetric along great circles. The normalizing constant of $mathrm{FB}_8$ can be numerically integrated, and recently Kume and Sei showed that it can be computed using an adjusted holonomic gradient method. Both approaches, however, can be computationally expensive. In this paper, I show that the normalization of $mathrm{FB}_8$ can be expressed as an infinite sum consisting of hypergeometric functions, similar to that of the $mathrm{FB}_5$. This allows the normalization to be computed under summation with adequate stopping conditions. I then fit the $mathrm{FB}_8$ to a synthetic dataset using a maximum-likelihood approach and show its improvements over a fit with the more restrictive $mathrm{FB}_5$ distribution.
The two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution is the law of a sequence of decreasing nonnegative random variables with total sum one. It can be constructed from stable and Gamma subordinators with the two-parameters, $alpha$ and $theta$, corresponding to the stable component and Gamma component respectively. The moderate deviation principles are established for the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution and the corresponding homozygosity when $theta$ approaches infinity, and the large deviation principle is established for the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution when both $alpha$ and $theta$ approach zero.
Differential measurements of particle collisions or decays can provide stringent constraints on physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. In particular, the distributions of the kinematical and angular variables that characterise heavy me- son multibody decays are non trivial and can sign the underlying interaction physics. In the era of high luminosity opened by the advent of the Large Hadron Collider and of Flavor Factories, differential measurements are less and less dominated by statistical precision and require a precise determination of efficiencies that depend simultaneously on several variables and do not factorise in these variables. This docu- ment is a reflection on the potential of multivariate techniques for the determination of such multidimensional efficiencies. We carried out two case studies that show that multilayer perceptron neural networks can determine and correct for the distortions introduced by reconstruction and selection criteria in the multidimensional phase space of the decays $B^{0}rightarrow K^{*0}(rightarrow K^{+}pi^{-}) mu^{+}mu^{-}$ and $D^{0}rightarrow K^{-}pi^{+}pi^{+}pi^{-}$, at the price of a minimal analysis effort. We conclude that this method can already be used for measurements which statistical precision does not yet reach the percent level and that with more sophisticated machine learning methods, the aforementioned potential is very promising.
Glen Cowan
,Kyle Cranmer
,Eilam Gross
.
(2012)
.
"Asymptotic distribution for two-sided tests with lower and upper boundaries on the parameter of interest"
.
Kyle S. Cranmer
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