Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userCalibration of multi-physics computational models using Bayesian networks
231
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
This paper develops a Bayesian network-based method for the calibration of multi-physics models, integrating various sources of uncertainty with information from computational models and experimental data. We adopt the Kennedy and OHagan (KOH) framework for model calibration under uncertainty, and develop extensions to multi-physics models and various scenarios of available data. Both aleatoric uncertainty (due to natural variability) and epistemic uncertainty (due to lack of information, including data uncertainty and model uncertainty) are accounted for in the calibration process. Challenging aspects of Bayesian calibration for multi-physics models are investigated, including: (1) calibration with different forms of experimental data (e.g., interval data and time series data), (2) determination of the identifiability of model parameters when the analytical expression of model is known or unknown, (3) calibration of multiple physics models sharing common parameters, which enables efficient use of data especially when the experimental resources are limited. A first-order Taylor series expansion-based method is proposed to determine which model parameters are identifiable. Following the KOH framework, a probabilistic discrepancy function is estimated and added to the prediction of the calibrated model, attempting to account for model uncertainty. This discrepancy function is modeled as a Gaussian process when sufficient data are available for multiple model input combinations, and is modeled as a random variable when the available data are limited. The overall approach is illustrated using two application examples related to microelectromechanical system (MEMS) devices: (1) calibration of a dielectric charging model with time-series data, and (2) calibration of two physics models (pull-in voltage and creep) using measurements of different physical quantities in different devices.
rate research
Read More
We present an introduction to some concepts of Bayesian data analysis in the context of atomic physics. Starting from basic rules of probability, we present the Bayes theorem and its applications. In particular we discuss about how to calculate simple and joint probability distributions and the Bayesian evidence, a model dependent quantity that allows to assign probabilities to different hypotheses from the analysis of a same data set. To give some practical examples, these methods are applied to two concrete cases. In the first example, the presence or not of a satellite line in an atomic spectrum is investigated. In the second example, we determine the most probable model among a set of possible profiles from the analysis of a statistically poor spectrum. We show also how to calculate the probability distribution of the main spectral component without having to determine uniquely the spectrum modeling. For these two studies, we implement the program Nested fit to calculate the different probability distributions and other related quantities. Nested fit is a Fortran90/Python code developed during the last years for analysis of atomic spectra. As indicated by the name, it is based on the nested algorithm, which is presented in details together with the program itself.
Fitting a simplifying model with several parameters to real data of complex objects is a highly nontrivial task, but enables the possibility to get insights into the objects physics. Here, we present a method to infer the parameters of the model, the model error as well as the statistics of the model error. This method relies on the usage of many data sets in a simultaneous analysis in order to overcome the problems caused by the degeneracy between model parameters and model error. Errors in the modeling of the measurement instrument can be absorbed in the model error allowing for applications with complex instruments.
In nuclear engineering, modeling and simulations (M&Ss) are widely applied to support risk-informed safety analysis. Since nuclear safety analysis has important implications, a convincing validation process is needed to assess simulation adequacy, i.e., the degree to which M&S tools can adequately represent the system quantities of interest. However, due to data gaps, validation becomes a decision-making process under uncertainties. Expert knowledge and judgments are required to collect, choose, characterize, and integrate evidence toward the final adequacy decision. However, in validation frameworks CSAU: Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (NUREG/CR-5249) and EMDAP: Evaluation Model Development and Assessment Process (RG 1.203), such a decision-making process is largely implicit and obscure. When scenarios are complex, knowledge biases and unreliable judgments can be overlooked, which could increase uncertainty in the simulation adequacy result and the corresponding risks. Therefore, a framework is required to formalize the decision-making process for simulation adequacy in a practical, transparent, and consistent manner. This paper suggests a framework Predictive Capability Maturity Quantification using Bayesian network (PCMQBN) as a quantified framework for assessing simulation adequacy based on information collected from validation activities. A case study is prepared for evaluating the adequacy of a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic simulation in predicting the hydrodynamic forces onto static structures during an external flooding scenario. Comparing to the qualitative and implicit adequacy assessment, PCMQBN is able to improve confidence in the simulation adequacy result and to reduce expected loss in the risk-informed safety analysis.
Using the latest numerical simulations of rotating stellar core collapse, we present a Bayesian framework to extract the physical information encoded in noisy gravitational wave signals. We fit Bayesian principal component regression models with known and unknown signal arrival times to reconstruct gravitational wave signals, and subsequently fit known astrophysical parameters on the posterior means of the principal component coefficients using a linear model. We predict the ratio of rotational kinetic energy to gravitational energy of the inner core at bounce by sampling from the posterior predictive distribution, and find that these predictions are generally very close to the true parameter values, with $90%$ credible intervals $sim 0.04$ and $sim 0.06$ wide for the known and unknown arrival time models respectively. Two supervised machine learning methods are implemented to classify precollapse differential rotation, and we find that these methods discriminate rapidly rotating progenitors particularly well. We also introduce a constrained optimization approach to model selection to find an optimal number of principal components in the signal reconstruction step. Using this approach, we select 14 principal components as the most parsimonious model.
Despite of their success, the results of first-principles quantum mechanical calculations contain inherent numerical errors caused by various approximations. We propose here a neural-network algorithm to greatly reduce these inherent errors. As a demonstration, this combined quantum mechanical calculation and neural-network correction approach is applied to the evaluation of standard heat of formation $DelH$ and standard Gibbs energy of formation $DelG$ for 180 organic molecules at 298 K. A dramatic reduction of numerical errors is clearly shown with systematic deviations being eliminated. For examples, the root--mean--square deviation of the calculated $DelH$ ($DelG$) for the 180 molecules is reduced from 21.4 (22.3) kcal$cdotp$mol$^{-1}$ to 3.1 (3.3) kcal$cdotp$mol$^{-1}$ for B3LYP/6-311+G({it d,p}) and from 12.0 (12.9) kcal$cdotp$mol$^{-1}$ to 3.3 (3.4) kcal$cdotp$mol$^{-1}$ for B3LYP/6-311+G(3{it df},2{it p}) before and after the neural-network correction.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
