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Register a new userDetecting low-complexity unobserved causes
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We describe a method that infers whether statistical dependences between two observed variables X and Y are due to a direct causal link or only due to a connecting causal path that contains an unobserved variable of low complexity, e.g., a binary variable. This problem is motivated by statistical genetics. Given a genetic marker that is correlated with a phenotype of interest, we want to detect whether this marker is causal or it only correlates with a causal one. Our method is based on the analysis of the location of the conditional distributions P(Y|x) in the simplex of all distributions of Y. We report encouraging results on semi-empirical data.
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Aggregate network properties such as cluster cohesion and the number of bridge nodes can be used to glean insights about a networks community structure, spread of influence and the resilience of the network to faults. Efficiently computing network properties when the network is fully observed has received significant attention (Wasserman and Faust 1994; Cook and Holder 2006), however the problem of computing aggregate network properties when there is missing data attributes has received little attention. Computing these properties for networks with missing attributes involves performing inference over the network. Statistical relational learning (SRL) and graph neural networks (GNNs) are two classes of machine learning approaches well suited for inferring missing attributes in a graph. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of these approaches in estimating aggregate properties on networks with missing attributes. We compare two SRL approaches and three GNNs. For these approaches we estimate these properties using point estimates such as MAP and mean. For SRL-based approaches that can infer a joint distribution over the missing attributes, we also estimate these properties as an expectation over the distribution. To compute the expectation tractably for probabilistic soft logic, one of the SRL approaches that we study, we introduce a novel sampling framework. In the experimental evaluation, using three benchmark datasets, we show that SRL-based approaches tend to outperform GNN-based approaches both in computing aggregate properties and predictive accuracy. Specifically, we show that estimating the aggregate properties as an expectation over the joint distribution outperforms point estimates.
In order to deal with the curse of dimensionality in reinforcement learning (RL), it is common practice to make parametric assumptions where values or policies are functions of some low dimensional feature space. This work focuses on the representation learning question: how can we learn such features? Under the assumption that the underlying (unknown) dynamics correspond to a low rank transition matrix, we show how the representation learning question is related to a particular non-linear matrix decomposition problem. Structurally, we make precise connections between these low rank MDPs and latent variable models, showing how they significantly generalize prior formulations for representation learning in RL. Algorithmically, we develop FLAMBE, which engages in exploration and representation learning for provably efficient RL in low rank transition models.
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms have achieved great success on many challenging benchmarks (e.g., Computer Go). However, they generally require a large number of rollouts, making their applications costly. Furthermore, it is also extremely challenging to parallelize MCTS due to its inherent sequential nature: each rollout heavily relies on the statistics (e.g., node visitation counts) estimated from previous simulations to achieve an effective exploration-exploitation tradeoff. In spite of these difficulties, we develop an algorithm, WU-UCT, to effectively parallelize MCTS, which achieves linear speedup and exhibits only limited performance loss with an increasing number of workers. The key idea in WU-UCT is a set of statistics that we introduce to track the number of on-going yet incomplete simulation queries (named as unobserved samples). These statistics are used to modify the UCT tree policy in the selection steps in a principled manner to retain effective exploration-exploitation tradeoff when we parallelize the most time-consuming expansion and simulation steps. Experiments on a proprietary benchmark and the Atari Game benchmark demonstrate the linear speedup and the superior performance of WU-UCT comparing to existing techniques.
Machine learning models for medical image analysis often suffer from poor performance on important subsets of a population that are not identified during training or testing. For example, overall performance of a cancer detection model may be high, but the model still consistently misses a rare but aggressive cancer subtype. We refer to this problem as hidden stratification, and observe that it results from incompletely describing the meaningful variation in a dataset. While hidden stratification can substantially reduce the clinical efficacy of machine learning models, its effects remain difficult to measure. In this work, we assess the utility of several possible techniques for measuring and describing hidden stratification effects, and characterize these effects on multiple medical imaging datasets. We find evidence that hidden stratification can occur in unidentified imaging subsets with low prevalence, low label quality, subtle distinguishing features, or spurious correlates, and that it can result in relative performance differences of over 20% on clinically important subsets. Finally, we explore the clinical implications of our findings, and suggest that evaluation of hidden stratification should be a critical component of any machine learning deployment in medical imaging.
While various complexity measures for deep neural networks exist, specifying an appropriate measure capable of predicting and explaining generalization in deep networks has proven challenging. We propose Neural Complexity (NC), a meta-learning framework for predicting generalization. Our model learns a scalar complexity measure through interactions with many heterogeneous tasks in a data-driven way. The trained NC model can be added to the standard training loss to regularize any task learner in a standard supervised learning scenario. We contrast NCs approach against existing manually-designed complexity measures and other meta-learning models, and we validate NCs performance on multiple regression and classification tasks
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