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Register a new userRevisited sunspot data: A new scenario for the onset of the Maunder minimum
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Maunder Minimum forms an archetype for the Grand minima, and detailed knowledge of its temporal development has important consequences for the solar dynamo theory dealing with long-term solar activity evolution. Here we reconsider the current paradigm of the Grand minimum general scenario by using newly recovered sunspot observations by G. Marcgraf and revising some earlier uncertain data for the period 1636--1642, i.e., one solar cycle before the beginning of the Maunder Minimum. The new and revised data dramatically change the magnitude of the sunspot cycle just before the Maunder Minimum, from 60--70 down to about 20, implying a possibly gradual onset of the Minimum with reduced activity started two cycles before it. This revised scenario of the Maunder Minimum changes, through the paradigm for Grand solar/stellar activity minima, the observational constraint on the solar/stellar dynamo theories focused on long-term studies and occurrence of Grand minima.
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An analysis of the sunspot observations made by Hevelius during 1642-1645 is presented. These records are the only systematic sunspot observations just before the Maunder Minimum. We have studied different phenomena meticulously recorded by Hevelius after translating the original Latin texts. We re-evaluate the observations of sunspot groups by Hevelius during this period and obtain an average value 7% greater than that calculated from his observations given in the current group database. Furthermore, the average of the active day fraction obtained in this work from Hevelius records previous to the Maunder Minimum is significantly greater than the solar activity level obtained from Hevelius sunspot observations made during the Maunder Minimum (70% vs. 30%). We also present the butterfly diagram obtained from the sunspot positions recorded by Hevelius for the period 1642-1645. It can be seen that no hemispheric asymmetry exists during this interval, in contrast with the Maunder Minimum. Hevelius noted a ~3-month period that appeared to lack sunspots in early 1645 that gave the first hint of the impending Maunder Minimum. Recent studies claim that the Maunder Minimum was not a grand minimum period speculating that astronomers of that time, due to the Aristotelian ideas, did not record all sunspots that they observed, producing thus an underestimation of the solar activity level. However, we show the good quality of the sunspot records made by Hevelius indicates that his reports of sunspots were true to the observations.
The sunspot groups have been observed since 1610 and their numbers have been used for evaluating the amplitude of solar activity. Daniel Mogling recorded his sunspot observations for more than 100 days in 1626 - 1629 and formed a significant dataset of sunspot records before the Maunder Minimum. Here, we have analysed his original manuscripts in the Universitats- und Landesbibliothek Darmstadt (ULBD) to review Moglings personal profile and observational instruments and derive number and positions of the sunspot groups. In his manuscript, we have identified 134 days with an exact sunspot group number and 3 days of additional descriptions. Our analyses have completely revised their observational dates and group number, added 19 days of hitherto overlooked observations, and removed 8 days of misinterpreted observations. We have also revisited sunspot observations of Schickard and Hortensius and revised their data. These results have been compared with the contemporary observations. Moreover, we have derived the sunspot positions from his sunspot drawings and located them at 2{deg}-23{deg} in the heliographic latitude in both solar hemispheres. Contextualised with contemporary observations, these results indicate their temporal migration to lower heliographic latitudes and emphasise its location in the declining phase of Solar Cycle -12 in the 1620s. His observations were probably conducted using a pinhole and camera obscura, which made Mogling likely underestimate the sunspot group number by >~ 33% - 52 %. This underestimation should be noted upon their comparison with the modern datasets.
The solar activity during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645 -- 1715) has been considered significantly different from the one captured in modern observations, in terms of sunspot group number and sunspot positions, whereas its actual amplitudes and distributions is still under active discussions. In its core period (1650/1660 -- 1700), Martin Fogelius and Henrich Siverus have formed significant long-term series in the existing databases with numerous spotless days, as the 13th and 7th most active observers before the end of the MM. In this study, we have analysed their original archival records, revised their data, have removed significant contaminations of the apparent spotless days in the existing databases, and cast caveats on the potential underestimation of the solar-cycle amplitude in the core MM. Still, they reported at best one sunspot group throughout their observational period and confirm the significant suppressed the solar cycles during the MM, which is also supported from the contemporary observations of Hook and Willoughby. Based on the revised data, we have also derived positions of notable sunspot groups, which Siverus recorded in 1671 (~ N7.5{deg} +/- 2.5{deg}), in comparison with those of Cassinis drawings (~ N10{deg} +/- 1{deg}). Their coincidence in position and chronology in corrected dates indicates these sunspot groups were probably the same recurrent active region (AR) and its significantly long lifespan (>~ 35 days) even during the MM.
We study the magnetic activity cycle of HD 4915 using the ion{Ca}{2} H & K emission line strengths measured by Keck I/HIRES spectrograph. The star has been observed as a part of California Planet Search Program from 2006 to present. We note decreasing amplitude in the magnetic activity cycle, a pattern suggesting the stars entry into a Magnetic Grand Minimum (MGM) state, reminiscent of the Suns Maunder and Dalton Minima. We recommend further monitoring of the star to confirm the grand minimum nature of the dynamo, which would provide insight into the state of the Suns chromosphere and the global magnetic field during its grand minima. We also recommend continued observations of H & K emission lines, and ground or space based photometric observations to estimate the sunspot coverage.
A revision is presented of the sunspot observations made by Charles Malapert from 1618 to 1626, studying several documentary sources that include those observations. The revised accounting of the group numbers recorded by Malapert for that period shows new information unavailable in the current sunspot group database. The average solar activity level calculated from these revised records of Malapert is by almost one third greater than that calculated from his records included in the current group database. Comparison of the sunspot observations made by Malapert and by other astronomers of that time with regard to the number of recorded groups and sunspot positions on the solar disk shows good agreement. Malapert reported that he only recorded one sunspot group in each sunspot drawing presented in Austriaca Sidera Heliocyclia (the documentary source which includes most of the sunspot records made by Malapert), although he sometimes observed several groups. Therefore, the sunspot counts obtained in this present work on Malaperts sunspot observations represents the lower limit of the solar activity level corresponding to those records.
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