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Register a new userStatistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter
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Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the employed statistical framework and scanning algorithm. In frequentist parameter estimation, a central requirement for properly constructed confidence intervals is that they cover true parameter values, preferably at exactly the stated confidence level when experiments are repeated infinitely many times. Since most widely-used scanning techniques are optimised for Bayesian statistics, one needs to assess their abilities in providing correct confidence intervals in terms of the statistical coverage. Here we investigate this for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) when only constrained by data from direct searches for dark matter. We construct confidence intervals from one-dimensional profile likelihoods and study the coverage by generating several pseudo-experiments for a few benchmark sets of pseudo-true parameters. We use nested sampling to scan the parameter space and evaluate the coverage for the benchmarks when either flat or logarithmic priors are imposed on gaugino and scalar mass parameters. The sampling algorithm has been used in the configuration usually adopted for exploration of the Bayesian posterior. We observe both under- and over-coverage, which in some cases vary quite dramatically when benchmarks or priors are modified. We show how most of the variation can be explained as the impact of explicit priors as well as sampling effects, where the latter are indirectly imposed by physicality conditions. For comparison, we also evaluate the coverage for Bayesian credible intervals, and observe significant under-coverage in those cases.
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In the Next-to-Minimal-Supersymmetric-Standard-Model (NMSSM) the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) is a candidate for the dark matter (DM) in the universe. It is a mixture from the various gauginos and Higgsinos and can be bino-, Higgsino- or singlino-dominated. Singlino-dominated LSPs can have very low cross sections below the neutrino background from coherent neutrino scattering which is limiting the sensitivity of future direct DM search experiments. However, previous studies suggested that the combination of both, the spin-dependent (SD) and spin-independent (SI) searches are sensitive in complementary regions of parameter space, so considering both searches will allow to explore practically the whole parameter space of the NMSSM. In this letter, the different scenarios are investigated with a new scanning technique, which reveals that significant regions of the NMSSM parameter space cannot be explored, even if one considers both, SI and SD, searches.
We provide a Mathematica package, DirectDM, that takes as input the Wilson coefficients of the relativistic effective theory describing the interactions of dark matter with quarks, gluons and photons, and matches it onto an effective theory describing the interactions of dark matter with neutrons and protons. The nonperturbative matching is performed at leading order in a chiral expansion. The one-loop QCD and QED renormalization-group evolution from the electroweak scale down to the hadronic scale, as well as finite corrections at the heavy quark thresholds are taken into account. We also provide an interface with the package DMFormFactor so that, starting from the relativistic effective theory, one can directly obtain the event rates for direct detection experiments.
In this work we introduce RAPIDD, a surrogate model that speeds up the computation of the expected spectrum of dark matter particles in direct detection experiments. RAPIDD replaces the exact calculation of the dark matter differential rate (which in general involves up to three nested integrals) with a much faster parametrization in terms of ordinary polynomials of the dark matter mass and couplings, obtained in an initial training phase. In this article, we validate our surrogate model on the multi-dimensional parameter space resulting from the effective field theory description of dark matter interactions with nuclei, including also astrophysical uncertainties in the description of the dark matter halo. As a concrete example, we use this tool to study the complementarity of different targets to discriminate simplified dark matter models. We demonstrate that RAPIDD is fast and accurate, and particularly well-suited to explore a multi-dimensional parameter space, such as the one in effective field theory approach, and scans with a large number of evaluations.
Identifying the true theory of dark matter depends crucially on accurately characterizing interactions of dark matter (DM) with other species. In the context of DM direct detection, we present a study of the prospects for correctly identifying the low-energy effective DM-nucleus scattering operators connected to UV-complete models of DM-quark interactions. We take a census of plausible UV-complete interaction models with different low-energy leading-order DM-nuclear responses. For each model (corresponding to different spin-, momentum-, and velocity-dependent responses), we create a large number of realizations of recoil-energy spectra, and use Bayesian methods to investigate the probability that experiments will be able to select the correct scattering model within a broad set of competing scattering hypotheses. We conclude that agnostic analysis of a strong signal (such as Generation-2 would see if cross sections are just below the current limits) seen on xenon and germanium experiments is likely to correctly identify momentum dependence of the dominant response, ruling out models with either heavy or light mediators, and enabling downselection of allowed models. However, a unique determination of the correct UV completion will critically depend on the availability of measurements from a wider variety of nuclear targets, including iodine or fluorine. We investigate how model-selection prospects depend on the energy window available for the analysis. In addition, we discuss accuracy of the DM particle mass determination under a wide variety of scattering models, and investigate impact of the specific types of particle-physics uncertainties on prospects for model selection.
Dark matter could emerge along with the Higgs as a composite pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson $chi$ with decay constant $fsim mathrm{TeV}$. This type of WIMP is especially compelling because its leading interaction with the Standard Model, the derivative Higgs portal, has the correct annihilation strength for thermal freeze-out if $m_chi sim O(100)$ GeV, but is negligible in direct detection experiments due to the very small momentum transfer. The explicit breaking of the shift symmetry which radiatively generates $m_chi$, however, introduces non-derivative DM interactions. In existing realizations a marginal Higgs portal coupling $lambda$ is generated with size comparable to the Higgs quartic, and thus well within reach of XENON1T. Here, we present and analyze the interesting case where the pattern of explicit symmetry breaking naturally suppresses $lambda$ beyond the reach of current and future direct detection experiments. If the DM acquires mass from bottom quark loops, the bottom quark also mediates suppressed DM-nucleus scattering with cross sections that will be eventually probed by LZ. Alternatively, the DM can obtain mass from gauging its stabilizing $U(1)$ symmetry. No direct detection signal is expected even at future facilities, but the introduction of a dark photon $gamma_D$ has a number of phenomenological implications which we study in detail, treating $m_{gamma_D}$ as a free parameter. Complementary probes of the dark sector include indirect DM detection, DM self-interactions, and extra radiation, as well as collider experiments. We frame our discussion in an effective field theory, motivating our parameter choices with a detailed analysis of an $SO(7)/SO(6)$ composite Higgs model, which can yield either scenario at low energies.
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