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After building a classifier with modern tools of machine learning we typically have a black box at hand that is able to predict well for unseen data. Thus, we get an answer to the question what is the most likely label of a given unseen data point. However, most methods will provide no answer why the model predicted the particular label for a single instance and what features were most influential for that particular instance. The only method that is currently able to provide such explanations are decision trees. This paper proposes a procedure which (based on a set of assumptions) allows to explain the decisions of any classification method.
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Artificial intelligence systems are being increasingly deployed due to their potential to increase the efficiency, scale, consistency, fairness, and accuracy of decisions. However, as many of these systems are opaque in their operation, there is a growing demand for such systems to provide explanations for their decisions. Conventional approaches to this problem attempt to expose or discover the inner workings of a machine learning model with the hope that the resulting explanations will be meaningful to the consumer. In contrast, this paper suggests a new approach to this problem. It introduces a simple, practical framework, called Teaching Explanations for Decisions (TED), that provides meaningful explanations that match the mental model of the consumer. We illustrate the generality and effectiveness of this approach with two different examples, resulting in highly accurate explanations with no loss of prediction accuracy for these two examples.
In real-world classification problems, pairwise supervision (i.e., a pair of patterns with a binary label indicating whether they belong to the same class or not) can often be obtained at a lower cost than ordinary class labels. Similarity learning is a general framework to utilize such pairwise supervision to elicit useful representations by inferring the relationship between two data points, which encompasses various important preprocessing tasks such as metric learning, kernel learning, graph embedding, and contrastive representation learning. Although elicited representations are expected to perform well in downstream tasks such as classification, little theoretical insight has been given in the literature so far. In this paper, we reveal that a specific formulation of similarity learning is strongly related to the objective of binary classification, which spurs us to learn a binary classifier without ordinary class labels---by fitting the product of real-valued prediction functions of pairwise patterns to their similarity. Our formulation of similarity learning does not only generalize many existing ones, but also admits an excess risk bound showing an explicit connection to classification. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the practical usefulness of the proposed method on benchmark datasets.
In biopharmaceutical manufacturing, fermentation processes play a critical role on productivity and profit. A fermentation process uses living cells with complex biological mechanisms, and this leads to high variability in the process outputs. By building on the biological mechanisms of protein and impurity growth, we introduce a stochastic model to characterize the accumulation of the protein and impurity levels in the fermentation process. However, a common challenge in industry is the availability of only very limited amount of data especially in the development and early stage of production. This adds an additional layer of uncertainty, referred to as model risk, due to the difficulty of estimating the model parameters with limited data. In this paper, we study the harvesting decision for a fermentation process under model risk. In particular, we adopt a Bayesian approach to update the unknown parameters of the growth-rate distributions, and use the resulting posterior distributions to characterize the impact of model risk on fermentation output variability. The harvesting problem is formulated as a Markov decision process model with knowledge states that summarize the posterior distributions and hence incorporate the model risk in decision-making. The resulting model is solved by using a reinforcement learning algorithm based on Bayesian sparse sampling. We provide analytical results on the structure of the optimal policy and its objective function, and explicitly study the impact of model risk on harvesting decisions. Our case studies at MSD Animal Health demonstrate that the proposed model and solution approach improve the harvesting decisions in real life by achieving substantially higher average output from a fermentation batch along with lower batch-to-batch variability.
We present a simple theoretical framework, and corresponding practical procedures, for comparing probabilistic models on real data in a traditional machine learning setting. This framework is based on the theory of proper scoring rules, but requires only basic algebra and probability theory to understand and verify. The theoretical concepts presented are well-studied, primarily in the statistics literature. The goal of this paper is to advocate their wider adoption for performance evaluation in empirical machine learning.
Using machine learning in high-stakes applications often requires predictions to be accompanied by explanations comprehensible to the domain user, who has ultimate responsibility for decisions and outcomes. Recently, a new framework for providing explanations, called TED, has been proposed to provide meaningful explanations for predictions. This framework augments training data to include explanations elicited from domain users, in addition to features and labels. This approach ensures that explanations for predictions are tailored to the complexity expectations and domain knowledge of the consumer. In this paper, we build on this foundational work, by exploring more sophisticated instantiations of the TED framework and empirically evaluate their effectiveness in two diverse domains, chemical odor and skin cancer prediction. Results demonstrate that meaningful explanations can be reliably taught to machine learning algorithms, and in some cases, improving modeling accuracy.
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