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Register a new userPredicting Abnormal Returns From News Using Text Classification
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Added by
Ronny Luss
Publication date
2009
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We show how text from news articles can be used to predict intraday price movements of financial assets using support vector machines. Multiple kernel learning is used to combine equity returns with text as predictive features to increase classification performance and we develop an analytic center cutting plane method to solve the kernel learning problem efficiently. We observe that while the direction of returns is not predictable using either text or returns, their size is, with text features producing significantly better performance than historical returns alone.
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The fundamental problem in short-text classification is emph{feature sparseness} -- the lack of feature overlap between a trained model and a test instance to be classified. We propose emph{ClassiNet} -- a network of classifiers trained for predicting missing features in a given instance, to overcome the feature sparseness problem. Using a set of unlabeled training instances, we first learn binary classifiers as feature predictors for predicting whether a particular feature occurs in a given instance. Next, each feature predictor is represented as a vertex $v_i$ in the ClassiNet where a one-to-one correspondence exists between feature predictors and vertices. The weight of the directed edge $e_{ij}$ connecting a vertex $v_i$ to a vertex $v_j$ represents the conditional probability that given $v_i$ exists in an instance, $v_j$ also exists in the same instance. We show that ClassiNets generalize word co-occurrence graphs by considering implicit co-occurrences between features. We extract numerous features from the trained ClassiNet to overcome feature sparseness. In particular, for a given instance $vec{x}$, we find similar features from ClassiNet that did not appear in $vec{x}$, and append those features in the representation of $vec{x}$. Moreover, we propose a method based on graph propagation to find features that are indirectly related to a given short-text. We evaluate ClassiNets on several benchmark datasets for short-text classification. Our experimental results show that by using ClassiNet, we can statistically significantly improve the accuracy in short-text classification tasks, without having to use any external resources such as thesauri for finding related features.
We extend the AROW regression algorithm developed by Vaits and Crammer in [VC11] to handle synchronous mini-batch updates and apply it to stock return prediction. By design, the model should be more robust to noise and adapt better to non-stationarity compared to a simple rolling regression. We empirically show that the new model outperforms more classical approaches by backtesting a strategy on S&P500 stocks.
Image retrieval relies heavily on the quality of the data modeling and the distance measurement in the feature space. Building on the concept of image manifold, we first propose to represent the feature space of images, learned via neural networks, as a graph. Neighborhoods in the feature space are now defined by the geodesic distance between images, represented as graph vertices or manifold samples. When limited images are available, this manifold is sparsely sampled, making the geodesic computation and the corresponding retrieval harder. To address this, we augment the manifold samples with geometrically aligned text, thereby using a plethora of sentences to teach us about images. In addition to extensive results on standard datasets illustrating the power of text to help in image retrieval, a new public dataset based on CLEVR is introduced to quantify the semantic similarity between visual data and text data. The experimental results show that the joint embedding manifold is a robust representation, allowing it to be a better basis to perform image retrieval given only an image and a textual instruction on the desired modifications over the image
The concept of utilizing multi-step returns for updating value functions has been adopted in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for a number of years. Updating value functions with different backup lengths provides advantages in different aspects, including bias and variance of value estimates, convergence speed, and exploration behavior of the agent. Conventional methods such as TD-lambda leverage these advantages by using a target value equivalent to an exponential average of different step returns. Nevertheless, integrating step returns into a single target sacrifices the diversity of the advantages offered by different step return targets. To address this issue, we propose Mixture Bootstrapped DQN (MB-DQN) built on top of bootstrapped DQN, and uses different backup lengths for different bootstrapped heads. MB-DQN enables heterogeneity of the target values that is unavailable in approaches relying only on a single target value. As a result, it is able to maintain the advantages offered by different backup lengths. In this paper, we first discuss the motivational insights through a simple maze environment. In order to validate the effectiveness of MB-DQN, we perform experiments on the Atari 2600 benchmark environments, and demonstrate the performance improvement of MB-DQN over a number of baseline methods. We further provide a set of ablation studies to examine the impacts of different design configurations of MB-DQN.
We study the cross-sectional returns of the firms connected by news articles. A conservative algorithm is proposed to tackle the type-I error in identifying firm tickers and the well-defined directed news networks of S&P500 stocks are formed based on a modest assumption. After controlling for many other effects, we find strong evidence for the comovement effect between news-linked firms stock returns and reversal effect from lead stock return on 1-day ahead follower stock return, however, returns of lead stocks provide only marginal predictability on follower stock returns. Furthermore, both econometric and portfolio test reveals that network degree provides robust and significant cross-sectional predictability on monthly stock returns, and the type of linkages also matters for portfolio construction.
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