Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userThe effects of distributed life cycles on the dynamics of viral infections
169
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics of immune responses to persistent viruses. Science 272, 74-79) from a mesoscopic description. In its final form the model can be written as a set of Volterra integrodifferential equations. We consider the role of age-distributed delays for death times and the intracellular (eclipse) phase. These processes are implemented by means of probability distribution functions. The basic reproductive ratio $R_0$ of the infection is properly defined in terms of such distributions by using an analysis of the equilibrium states and their stability. It is concluded that the introduction of distributed delays can strongly modify both the value of $R_0$ and the predictions for the virus loads, so the effects on the infection dynamics are of major importance. We also show how the model presented here can be applied to some simple situations where direct comparison with experiments is possible. Specifically, phage-bacteria interactions are analysed. The dynamics of the eclipse phase for phages is characterized analytically, which allows us to compare the performance of three different fittings proposed before for the one-step growth curve.
rate research
Read More
Time series analysis of fossil biodiversity of marine invertebrates in the Paleobiology Database (PBDB) shows a significant periodicity at approximately 63 My, in agreement with previous analyses based on the Sepkoski database. I discuss how this result did not appear in a previous analysis of the PBDB. The existence of the 63 My periodicity, despite very different treatment of systematic error in both PBDB and Sepkoski databases strongly argues for consideration of its reality in the fossil record. Cross-spectral analysis of the two datasets finds that a 62 My periodicity coincides in phase by 1.6 My, equivalent to better than the errors in either measurement. Consequently, the two data sets not only contain the same strong periodicity, but its peaks and valleys closely correspond in time. Two other spectral peaks appear in the PBDB analysis, but appear to be artifacts associated with detrending and with the increased interval length. Sampling-standardization procedures implemented by the PBDB collaboration suggest that the signal is not an artifact of sampling bias. Further work should focus on finding the cause of the 62 My periodicity.
The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading -- from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading though online spaces such as chatrooms and social media. However there is a lack of understanding of the types of viral dynamics that can result. Here we present a minimal dynamical model which focuses on the time-dependent interplay between the {em mobility through} and the {em occupancy of} such spaces. Our generic model permits analytic analysis while producing a rich diversity of infection profiles in terms of their shapes, durations, and intensities. The general features of these theoretical profiles compare well to real-world data of recent social contagion phenomena.
Traditional approaches to ecosystem modelling have relied on spatially homogeneous approximations to interaction, growth and death. More recently, spatial interaction and dispersal have also been considered. While these leads to certain changes in community dynamics, their effect is sometimes fairly minimal, and demographic scenarios in which this difference is important have not been systematically investigated. We take a simple mean-field model which simulates birth, growth and death processes, and rewrite it with spatially distributed discrete individuals. Each individuals growth and mortality is determined by a competition measure which captures the effects of neighbours in a way which retains the conceptual simplicity of a generic, analytically-solvable model. Although the model is generic, we here parameterise it using data from Caledonian Scots Pine stands. The dynamics of simulated populations, starting from a plantation lattice configuration, mirror those of well-established qualitative descriptions of natural forest stand behaviour; an analogy which assists in understanding the transition from artificial to old-growth structure. When parameterised for Scots Pine populations, the signature of spatial processes is evident, but they do not have a large effect on first-order statistics such as density and biomass. The sensitivity of this result to variation in each individual rate parameter is investigated; distinct differences between spatial and mean-field models are seen only upon alteration of the interaction strength parameters, and in low density populations. Under the Scots Pine parameterisation, dispersal also has an effect of spatial structure, but not first-order properties. Only in more intense competitive scenarios does altering the relative scales of dispersal and interaction lead to a clear signal in first order behaviour.
We present a series of SIR-network models, extended with a game-theoretic treatment of imitation dynamics which result from regular population mobility across residential and work areas and the ensuing interactions. Each considered SIR-network model captures a class of vaccination behaviours influenced by epidemic characteristics, interaction topology, and imitation dynamics. Our focus is the eventual vaccination coverage, produced under voluntary vaccination schemes, in response to these varying factors. Using the next generation matrix method, we analytically derive and compare expressions for the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the proposed SIR-network models. Furthermore, we simulate the epidemic dynamics over time for the considered models, and show that if individuals are sufficiently responsive towards the changes in the disease prevalence, then the more expansive travelling patterns encourage convergence to the endemic, mixed equilibria. On the contrary, if individuals are insensitive to changes in the disease prevalence, we find that they tend to remain unvaccinated in all the studied models. Our results concur with earlier studies in showing that residents from highly connected residential areas are more likely to get vaccinated. We also show that the existence of the individuals committed to receiving vaccination reduces $R_0$ and delays the disease prevalence, and thus is essential to containing epidemics.
The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a {it Culex quinquefasciatus} mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes $M_{max}$. Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on $M_{max}$. We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which $M_{max}$ is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of $M_{max}$ on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
