Phase stabilities of Hf-Si-O and Zr-Si-O have been studied with first-principles and thermodynamic modeling. From the obtained thermodynamic descriptions, phase diagrams pertinent to thin film processing were calculated. We found that the relative stability of the metal silicates with respect to their binary oxides plays a critical role in silicide formation. It was observed that both the HfO$_2$/Si and ZrO$_2$/Si interfaces are stable in a wide temperature range and silicide may form at low temperatures, partially at the HfO$_2$/Si interface.