We present predictions for the evolution of the galaxy luminosity function, number counts and redshift distributions in the IR based on the Lambda-CDM cosmological model. We use the combined GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model and GRASIL spectrophotometric code to compute galaxy SEDs including the reprocessing of radiation by dust. The model, which is the same as that in Baugh et al (2005), assumes two different IMFs: a normal solar neighbourhood IMF for quiescent star formation in disks, and a very top-heavy IMF in starbursts triggered by galaxy mergers. We have shown previously that the top-heavy IMF seems to be necessary to explain the number counts of faint sub-mm galaxies. We compare the model with observational data from the SPITZER Space Telescope, with the model parameters fixed at values chosen before SPITZER data became available. We find that the model matches the observed evolution in the IR remarkably well over the whole range of wavelengths probed by SPITZER. In particular, the SPITZER data show that there is strong evolution in the mid-IR galaxy luminosity function over the redshift range z ~ 0-2, and this is reproduced by our model without requiring any adjustment of parameters. On the other hand, a model with a normal IMF in starbursts predicts far too little evolution in the mid-IR luminosity function, and is therefore excluded.
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