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Register a new userOn the potential of transit surveys in star clusters: Impact of correlated noise and radial velocity follow-up
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Suzanne Aigrain
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We present an extension of the formalism recently proposed by Pepper & Gaudi to evaluate the yield of transit surveys in homogeneous stellar systems, incorporating the impact of correlated noise on transit time-scales on the detectability of transits, and simultaneously incorporating the magnitude limits imposed by the need for radial velocity follow-up of transit candidates. New expressions are derived for the different contributions to the noise budget on transit time-scales and the least-squares detection statistic for box-shaped transits, and their behaviour as a function of stellar mass is re-examined. Correlated noise that is constant with apparent stellar magnitude implies a steep decrease in detection probability at the high mass end which, when considered jointly with the radial velocity requirements, can severely limit the potential of otherwise promising surveys in star clusters. However, we find that small-aperture, wide field surveys may detect hot Neptunes whose radial velocity signal can be measured with present-day instrumentation in very nearby (<100 pc) clusters.
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We present preliminary results on the radial velocity follow-up of a planetary transit candidate (P=2.43d, V=15.4) detected during the MACHO project. The photometry is consistent with a grazing transit of an object with radius >=1.8RJ orbiting a K dwarf star, and is the brightest best candidate detected from MACHO. Results from the 2.2m MPG/ESO telescope and FEROS (R=48,000) in May 2006 display an apparent radial velocity variation with amplitude ~650m/s with the same period as the transit, and a solar-type primary. This is consistent with an orbiting companion of mass ~4MJ. However, further observations display an additional secondary long-period variation with amplitude of several km/s, indicating the presence of a third body. The system is likely a low mass eclipsing binary orbiting the solar-type primary. Further observations are planned to fully characterize the system.
Population studies of Keplers multi-planet systems have revealed a surprising degree of structure in their underlying architectures. Information from a detected transiting planet can be combined with a population model to make predictions about the presence and properties of additional planets in the system. Using a statistical model for the distribution of planetary systems (He et al. 2020; arXiv:2007.14473), we compute the conditional occurrence of planets as a function of the period and radius of Kepler--detectable planets. About half ($0.52 pm 0.03$) of the time, the detected planet is not the planet with the largest semi-amplitude $K$ in the system, so efforts to measure the mass of the transiting planet with RV follow-up will have to contend with additional planetary signals in the data. We simulate RV observations to show that assuming a single--planet model to measure the $K$ of the transiting planet often requires significantly more observations than in the ideal case with no additional planets, due to the systematic errors from unseen planet companions. Our results show that planets around 10-day periods with $K$ close to the single--measurement RV precision ($sigma_{1,rm obs}$) typically require $sim 100$ observations to measure their $K$ to within 20% error. For a next generation RV instrument achieving $sigma_{1,rm obs} = 10$ cm/s, about $sim 200$ ($600$) observations are needed to measure the $K$ of a transiting Venus in a Kepler--like system to better than 20% (10%) error, which is $sim 2.3$ times as many as what would be necessary for a Venus without any planetary companions.
Radial Velocity follow-up is essential to establish or exclude the planetary nature of a transiting companion as well as to accurately determine its mass. Here we present some elements of an efficient Doppler follow-up strategy, based on high-resolution spectroscopy, devoted to the characterization of transiting candidates. Some aspects and results of the radial velocity follow-up of the CoRoT space mission are presented in order to illustrate the strategy used to deal with the zoo of transiting candidates.
The space missions TESS and PLATO plan to double the number of 4000 exoplanets already discovered and will measure the size of thousands of exoplanets around the brightest stars in the sky, allowing ground-based radial velocity spectroscopy follow-up to determine the orbit and mass of the detected planets. The new facility we are developing, MARVEL (Raskin et al. this conference), will enable the ground-based follow-up of large numbers of exoplanet detections, expected from TESS and PLATO, which cannot be carried out only by the current facilities that achieve the necessary radial velocity accuracy of 1 m/s or less. This paper presents the MARVEL observation strategy and performance analysis based on predicted PLATO transit detection yield simulations. The resulting observation scenario baseline will help in the instrument design choices and demonstrate the effectiveness of MARVEL as a TESS and PLATO science enabling facility.
One of the biggest challenges facing large transit surveys is the elimination of false-positives from the vast number of transit candidates. We investigate to what extent information from the lightcurves can identify blend scenarios and eliminate them as planet candidates, to significantly decrease the amount of follow-up observing time required to identify the true exoplanet systems. If a lightcurve has a sufficiently high signal-to-noise ratio, a distinction can be made between the lightcurve of a stellar binary blended with a third star and the lightcurve of a transiting exoplanet system. We perform simulations to determine what signal-to-noise level is required to make the distinction between blended and non-blended systems as function of transit depth and impact parameter. Subsequently we test our method on real data from the first IRa01 field observed by the CoRoT satellite, concentrating on the 51 candidates already identified by the CoRoT team. About 70% of the planet candidates in the CoRoT IRa01 field are best fit with an impact parameter of b>0.85, while less than 15% are expected in this range considering random orbital inclinations. By applying a cut at b<0.85, meaning that ~15% of the potential planet population would be missed, the candidate sample decreases from 41 to 11. The lightcurves of 6 of those are best fit with such low host star densities that the planet-to-star size ratii imply unrealistic planet radii of R>2RJup. Two of the five remaining systems, CoRoT1b and CoRoT4b, have been identified as planets by the CoRoT team, for which the lightcurves alone rule out blended light at 14% (2sigma) and 31% (2sigma). We propose to use this method on the Kepler database to study the fraction of real planets and to potentially increase the efficiency of follow-up.
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