We present a detailed evaluation of the expected rate of joint gravitational-wave and short gamma-ray burst (GRB) observations over the coming years. We begin by evaluating the improvement in distance sensitivity of the gravitational wave search that arises from using the GRB observation to restrict the time and sky location of the source. We argue that this gives a 25% increase in sensitivity when compared to an all-sky, all-time search, corresponding to more than doubling the number of detectable gravitational wave signals associated with GRBs. Using this, we present the expected rate of joint observations with the advanced LIGO and Virgo instruments, taking into account the expected evolution of the gravitational wave detector network. We show that in the early advanced gravitational wave detector observing runs, from 2015-2017, there is only a small chance of a joint observation. However, as the detectors approach their design sensitivities, there is a good chance of joint observations provided wide field GRB satellites, such as Fermi and the Interplanetary Network, continue operation. The rate will also depend critically upon the nature of the progenitor, with neutron star--black hole systems observable to greater distances than double neutron star systems. The relative rate of binary mergers and GRBs will depend upon the jet opening angle of GRBs. Consequently, joint observations, as well as accurate measurement of both the GRB rate and binary merger rates, will allow for an improved estimation of the opening angle of GRBs.
We describe the implementation of a search for gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences in LIGO and Virgo data. This all-sky, all-time, multi-detector search for binary coalescence has been used to search data taken in recent LIGO and Virgo runs. The search is built around a matched filter analysis of the data, augmented by numerous signal consistency tests designed to distinguish artifacts of non-Gaussian detector noise from potential detections. We demonstrate the search performance using Gaussian noise and data from the fifth LIGO science run and demonstrate that the signal consistency tests are capable of mitigating the effect of non-Gaussian noise and providing a sensitivity comparable to that achieved in Gaussian noise.
The use of the loudest observed event to generate statistical statements about rate and strength has become standard in searches for gravitational waves from compact binaries and pulsars. The Bayesian formulation of the method is generalized in this paper to allow for uncertainties both in the background estimate and in the properties of the population being constrained. The method is also extended to allow rate interval construction. Finally, it is shown how to combine the results from multiple experiments and a comparison is drawn between the upper limit obtained in a single search and the upper limit obtained by combining the results of two experiments each of half the original duration. To illustrate this, we look at an example case, motivated by the search for gravitational waves from binary inspiral.
We introduce a method based on the loudest event statistic to calculate an upper limit or interval on the astrophysical rate of binary coalescence. The calculation depends upon the sensitivity and noise background of the detectors, and a model for the astrophysical distribution of coalescing binaries. There are significant uncertainties in the calculation of the rate due to both astrophysical and instrumental uncertainties as well as errors introduced by using the post--Newtonian waveform to approximate the full signal. We catalog these uncertainties in detail and describe a method for marginalizing over them. Throughout, we provide an example based on the initial LIGO detectors.
