The detection of a stochastic gravitational-wave signal from the superposition of many inspiraling supermassive black holes with pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) is likely to occur within the next decade. With this detection will come the opportunity to learn about the processes that drive black-hole-binary systems toward merger through their effects on the gravitational-wave spectrum. We use Bayesian methods to investigate the extent to which effects other than gravitational-wave emission can be distinguished using PTA observations. We show that, even in the absence of a detection, it is possible to place interesting constraints on these dynamical effects for conservative predictions of the population of tightly bound supermassive black-hole binaries. For instance, if we assume a relatively weak signal consistent with a low number of bound binaries and a low black-hole-mass to galaxy-mass correlation, we still find that a non-detection by a simulated array, with a sensitivity that should be reached in practice within a few years, disfavors gravitational-wave-dominated evolution with an odds ratio of $sim$30:1. Such a finding would suggest either that all existing astrophysical models for the population of tightly bound binaries are overly optimistic, or else that some dynamical effect other than gravitational-wave emission is actually dominating binary evolution even at the relatively high frequencies/small orbital separations probed by PTAs.
Gravitational waves at suitable frequencies can resonantly interact with a binary system, inducing changes to its orbit. A stochastic gravitational-wave background causes the orbital elements of the binary to execute a classic random walk, with the variance of orbital elements growing with time. The lack of such a random walk in binaries that have been monitored with high precision over long time-scales can thus be used to place an upper bound on the gravitational-wave background. Using periastron time data from the Hulse-Taylor binary pulsar spanning ~30 years, we obtain a bound of h_c < 7.9*10^(-14) at ~10^(-4) Hz, where h_c is the strain amplitude per logarithmic frequency interval. Our constraint complements those from pulsar timing arrays, which probe much lower frequencies, and ground-based gravitational-wave observations, which probe much higher frequencies. Interesting sources in our frequency band, which overlaps the lower sensitive frequencies of proposed space-based observatories, include white-dwarf/supermassive black-hole binaries in the early/late stages of inspiral, and TeV scale preheating or phase transitions. The bound improves as (time span)^(-2) and (sampling rate)^(-1/2). The Hulse-Taylor constraint can be improved to ~3.8*10^(-15) with a suitable observational campaign over the next decade. Our approach can also be applied to other binaries, including (with suitable care) the Earth-Moon system, to obtain constraints at different frequencies. The observation of additional binary pulsars with the SKA could reach a sensitivity of h_c ~ 3*10^(-17).
We investigate the capability of LISA to measure the sky position of equal-mass, nonspinning black hole binaries, combining for the first time the entire inspiral-merger-ringdown signal, the effect of the LISA orbits, and the complete three-channel LISA response. We consider an ensemble of systems near the peak of LISAs sensitivity band, with total rest mass of 2times10^6 Modot, a redshift of z = 1, and randomly chosen orientations and sky positions. We find median sky localization errors of approximately sim3 arcminutes. This is comparable to the field of view of powerful electromagnetic telescopes, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, that could be used to search for electromagnetic signals associated with merging massive black holes. We investigate the way in which parameter errors decrease with measurement time, focusing specifically on the additional information provided during the merger-ringdown segment of the signal. We find that this information improves all parameter estimates directly, rather than through diminishing correlations with any subset of well- determined parameters. Although we have employed the baseline LISA design for this study, many of our conclusions regarding the information provided by mergers will be applicable to alternative mission designs as well.
We investigate the precision with which the parameters describing the characteristics and location of nonspinning black hole binaries can be measured with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). By using complete waveforms including the inspiral, merger and ringdown portions of the signals, we find that LISA will have far greater precision than previous estimates for nonspinning mergers that ignored the merger and ringdown. Our analysis covers nonspinning waveforms with moderate mass ratios, q >= 1/10, and total masses 10^5 < M/M_{Sun} < 10^7. We compare the parameter uncertainties using the Fisher matrix formalism, and establish the significance of mass asymmetry and higher-order content to the predicted parameter uncertainties resulting from inclusion of the merger. In real-time observations, the later parts of the signal lead to significant improvements in sky-position precision in the last hours and even the final minutes of observation. For comparable mass systems with total mass M/M_{Sun} = ~10^6, we find that the increased precision resulting from including the merger is comparable to the increase in signal-to-noise ratio. For the most precise systems under investigation, half can be localized to within O(10 arcmin), and 10% can be localized to within O(1 arcmin).
