For the first time in history, humans have reached the point where it is possible to construct a revolutionary space-based observatory that has the capability to find dozens of Earth-like worlds, and possibly some with signs of life. This same telescope, designed as a long-lived facility, would also produce transformational scientific advances in every area of astronomy and astrophysics from black hole physics to galaxy formation, from star and planet formation to the origins of the Solar System. The Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) commissioned a study on a next-generation UVOIR space observatory with the highest possible scientific impact in the era following JWST. This community-based study focuses on the future space-based options for UV and optical astronomy that significantly advance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the cosmos and the life within it. The committee concludes that a space telescope equipped with a 12-meter class primary mirror can find and characterize dozens of Earth-like planets and make fundamental advances across nearly all fields of astrophysics. The concept is called the High Definition Space Telescope (HDST). The telescope would be located at the Sun-Earth L2 point and would cover a spectral range that, at a minimum, runs from 0.1 to 2 microns. Unlike JWST, HDST will not need to operate at cryogenic temperatures. HDST can be made to be serviceable on orbit but does not require servicing to complete its primary scientific objectives. We present the scientific and technical requirements for HDST and show that it could allow us to determine whether or not life is common outside the Solar System. We do not propose a specific design for such a telescope, but show that designing, building and funding such a facility is feasible beginning in the next decade - if the necessary strategic investments in technology begin now.
We present a retrieval method based on Bayesian analysis to infer the atmospheric compositions and surface or cloud-top pressures from transmission spectra of exoplanets with general compositions. In this study, we identify what can unambiguously be determined about the atmospheres of exoplanets from their transmission spectra by applying the retrieval method to synthetic observations of the super-Earth GJ 1214b. Our approach to infer constraints on atmospheric parameters is to compute their joint and marginal posterior probability distributions using the MCMC technique in a parallel tempering scheme. A new atmospheric parameterization is introduced that is applicable to general atmospheres in which the main constituent is not known a priori and clouds may be present. Our main finding is that a unique constraint of the mixing ratios of the absorbers and up to two spectrally inactive gases (such as N2 and primordial H2+He) is possible if the observations are sufficient to quantify both (1) the broadband transit depths in at least one absorption feature for each absorber and (2) the slope and strength of the molecular Rayleigh scattering signature. The surface or cloud-top pressure can be quantified if a surface or cloud deck is present. The mean molecular mass can be constrained from the Rayleigh slope or the shapes of absorption features, thus enabling to distinguish between cloudy hydrogen-rich atmospheres and high mean molecular mass atmospheres. We conclude, however, that without the signature of Rayleigh scattering--even with robustly detected infrared absorption features--there is no reliable way to tell if the absorber is the main constituent of the atmosphere or just a minor species with a mixing ratio of <0.1%. The retrieval method leads us to a conceptual picture of which details in transmission spectra are essential for unique characterizations of well-mixed atmospheres.
Hot Jupiters are expected to be dark from both observations (albedo upper limits) and theory (alkali metals and/or TiO and VO absorption). However, only a handful of hot Jupiters have been observed with high enough photometric precision at visible wavelengths to investigate these expectations. The NASA Kepler mission provides a means to widen the sample and to assess the extent to which hot Jupiter albedos are low. We present a global analysis of Kepler-7b based on Q0-Q4 data, published radial velocities, and asteroseismology constraints. We measure an occultation depth in the Kepler bandpass of 44+-5 ppm. If directly related to the albedo, this translates to a Kepler geometric albedo of 0.32+-0.03, the most precise value measured so far for an exoplanet. We also characterize the planetary orbital phase lightcurve with an amplitude of 42+-4 ppm. Using atmospheric models, we find it unlikely that the high albedo is due to a dominant thermal component and propose two solutions to explain the observed planetary flux. Firstly, we interpret the Kepler-7b albedo as resulting from an excess reflection over what can be explained solely by Rayleigh scattering, along with a nominal thermal component. This excess reflection might indicate the presence of a cloud or haze layer in the atmosphere, motivating new modeling and observational efforts. Alternatively, the albedo can be explained by Rayleigh scattering alone if Na and K are depleted in the atmosphere by a factor of 10-100 below solar abundances.
The probability that an exoplanet transits its host star is high for planets in close orbits, but drops off rapidly for increasing semimajor axes. This makes transit surveys for planets with large semimajor axes orbiting bright stars impractical, since one would need to continuously observe hundreds of stars that are spread out over the entire sky. One way to make such a survey tractable is to constrain the inclination of the stellar rotation axes in advance, and thereby enhance the transit probabilities. We derive transit probabilities for stars with stellar inclination constraints, considering a reasonable range of planetary system inclinations. We find that stellar inclination constraints can improve the transit probability by almost an order of magnitude for habitable-zone planets. When applied to an ensemble of stars, such constraints dramatically lower the number of stars that need to be observed in a targeted transit survey. We also consider multiplanet systems where only one planet has an identified transit, and derive the transit probabilities for the second planet assuming a range of mutual planetary inclinations.
