Simulation experiments are typically conducted repeatedly during the model development process, for example, to re-validate if a behavioral property still holds after several model changes. Approaches for automatically reusing and generating simulation experiments can support modelers in conducting simulation studies in a more systematic and effective manner. They rely on explicit experiment specifications and, so far, on user interaction for initiating the reuse. Thereby, they are constrained to support the reuse of simulation experiments in a specific setting. Our approach now goes one step further by automatically identifying and adapting the experiments to be reused for a variety of scenarios. To achieve this, we exploit provenance graphs of simulation studies, which provide valuable information about the previous modeling and experimenting activities, and contain meta-information about the different entities that were used or produced during the simulation study. We define provenance patterns and associate them with a semantics, which allows us to interpret the different activities, and construct transformation rules for provenance graphs. Our approach is implemented in a Reuse and Adapt framework for Simulation Experiments (RASE) which can interface with various modeling and simulation tools. In the case studies, we demonstrate the utility of our framework for a) the repeated sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model of migration routes, and b) the cross-validation of two models of a cell signaling pathway.
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a mixture of parametric density functions. The level of fertility and the parameters describing the shape of the fertility curve are projected foward using time series methods. The model is estimated within a Bayesian framework, allowing predictive distributions of future fertility rates to be produced that naturally incorporate both time series and parametric uncertainty. A number of choices are possible for the precise form of the functions used in the two-component mixtures. The performance of several model variants is tested on data from four countries; England and Wales, the USA, Sweden and France. The former two countries exhibit multi-modality in their fertility rate curves as a function of age, while the latter two are largely uni-modal. The models are estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and the `stan` software package on data covering the period up to 2006, with the period 2007-2016 held back for assessment purposes. Forecasting performance is found to be comparable to other models identified as producing accurate fertility forecasts in the literature.
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic mortality forecasts allow the uncertainty in mortality predictions to be taken into consideration when making policy decisions and setting product prices. Longer lifespans imply that forecasts of mortality at ages 90 and above will become more important in such calculations. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the forecasting of mortality that jointly estimates a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) for mortality for the majority of the age-range and a parametric model for older ages where the data are sparser. The GAM allows smooth components to be estimated for age, cohort and age-specific improvement rates, together with a non-smoothed period effect. Forecasts for the United Kingdom are produced using data from the Human Mortality Database spanning the period 1961-2013. A metric that approximates predictive accuracy under Leave-One-Out cross-validation is used to estimate weights for the `stacking of forecasts with different points of transition between the GAM and parametric elements. Mortality for males and females are estimated separately at first, but a joint model allows the asymptotic limit of mortality at old ages to be shared between sexes, and furthermore provides for forecasts accounting for correlations in period innovations. The joint and single sex model forecasts estimated using data from 1961-2003 are compared against observed data from 2004-2013 to facilitate model assessment.
