We introduce a method to prove metastability of the contact process on ErdH{o}s-Renyi graphs and on configuration model graphs. The method relies on uniformly bounding the total infection rate from below, over all sets with a fixed number of nodes. Once this bound is established, a simple comparison with a well chosen birth-and-death process will show the exponential growth of the extinction time. Our paper complements recent results on the metastability of the contact process: under a certain minimal edge density condition, we give explicit lower bounds on the infection rate needed to get metastability, and we have explicit exponentially growing lower bounds on the expected extinction time.
We take a fresh look at the determination of distances and velocities of neutron stars. The conversion of a parallax measurement into a distance, or distance probability distribution, has led to a debate quite similar to the one involving Cepheids, centering on the question whether priors can be used when discussing a single system. With the example of PSRJ0218+4232 we show that a prior is necessary to determine the probability distribution for the distance. The distance of this pulsar implies a gamma-ray luminosity larger than 10% of its spindown luminosity. For velocities the debate is whether a single Maxwellian describes the distribution for young pulsars. By limiting our discussion to accurate (VLBI) measurements we argue that a description with two Maxwellians, with distribution parameters sigma1=77 and sigma2=320 km/s, is significantly better. Corrections for galactic rotation, to derive velocities with respect to the local standards of rest, are insignificant.
We argue that comparison with observations of theoretical models for the velocity distribution of pulsars must be done directly with the observed quantities, i.e. parallax and the two components of proper motion. We develop a formalism to do so, and apply it to pulsars with accurate VLBI measurements. We find that a distribution with two maxwellians improves significantly on a single maxwellian. The `mixed model takes into account that pulsars move away from their place of birth, a narrow region around the galactic plane. The best model has 42% of the pulsars in a maxwellian with average velocity sigma sqrt{8/pi}=120 km/s, and 58% in a maxwellian with average velocity 540 km/s. About 5% of the pulsars has a velocity at birth less than 60,km/s. For the youngest pulsars (tau_c<10 Myr), these numbers are 32% with 130 km/s, 68% with 520 km/s, and 3%, with appreciable uncertainties.
We consider self-averaging sequences in which each term is a weighted average over previous terms. For several sequences of this kind it is known that they do not converge to a limit. These sequences share the property that $n$th term is mainly based on terms around a fixed fraction of $n$. We give a probabilistic interpretation to such sequences and give weak conditions under which it is natural to expect non-convergence. Our methods are illustrated by application to the group Russian roulette problem.
We consider multi-type Galton Watson trees, and find the distribution of these trees when conditioning on very general types of recursive events. It turns out that the conditioned tree is again a multi-type Galton Watson tree, possibly with more types and with offspring distributions, depending on the type of the father node and on the height of the father node. These distributions are given explicitly. We give some interesting examples for the kind of conditioning we can handle, showing that our methods have a wide range of applications.
These lecture notes are written as reference material for the Advanced Course Hydrodynamical Methods in Last Passage Percolation Models, given at the 28th Coloquio Brasileiro de Matematica at IMPA, Rio de Janeiro, July 2011.
In this paper we consider an equilibrium last-passage percolation model on an environment given by a compound two-dimensional Poisson process. We prove an $LL^2$-formula relating the initial measure with the last-passage percolation time. This formula turns out to be a useful tool to analyze the fluctuations of the last-passage times along non-characteristic directions.
In this paper we will show how the results found in Cator and Pimentel 2009, about the Busemann functions in last-passage percolation, can be used to calculate the asymptotic distribution of the speed of a single second class particle starting from an arbitrary deterministic configuration which has a rarefaction fan, in either the totally asymetric exclusion process, or the Hammersley interacting particle process. The method will be to use the well known last-passage percolation description of the exclusion process and of the Hammersley process, and then the well known connection between second class particles and competition interfaces.
