We address the Merton problem of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth using techniques from variational analysis. Under a general continuous semimartingale market model with stochastic parameters, we obtain a characterization of the optimal portfolio for general utility functions in terms of a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE) and derive solutions for a number of well-known utility functions. Our results complement a previous studies conducted on optimal strategies in markets driven by Brownian noise with random drift and volatility parameters.
We extend the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM) introduced in Sirignano and Spiliopoulos (2018) to solve a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that arise in the context of optimal stochastic control and mean field games. First, we consider PDEs where the function is constrained to be positive and integrate to unity, as is the case with Fokker-Planck equations. Our approach involves reparameterizing the solution as the exponential of a neural network appropriately normalized to ensure both requirements are satisfied. This then gives rise to a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) where the integral appearing in the equation is handled using importance sampling. Secondly, we tackle a number of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations that appear in stochastic optimal control problems. The key contribution is that these equations are approached in their unsimplified primal form which includes an optimization problem as part of the equation. We extend the DGM algorithm to solve for the value function and the optimal control simultaneously by characterizing both as deep neural networks. Training the networks is performed by taking alternating stochastic gradient descent steps for the two functions, a technique similar in spirit to policy improvement algorithms.
We address a portfolio selection problem that combines active (outperformance) and passive (tracking) objectives using techniques from convex analysis. We assume a general semimartingale market model where the assets growth rate processes are driven by a latent factor. Using techniques from convex analysis we obtain a closed-form solution for the optimal portfolio and provide a theorem establishing its uniqueness. The motivation for incorporating latent factors is to achieve improved growth rate estimation, an otherwise notoriously difficult task. To this end, we focus on a model where growth rates are driven by an unobservable Markov chain. The solution in this case requires a filtering step to obtain posterior probabilities for the state of the Markov chain from asset price information, which are subsequently used to find the optimal allocation. We show the optimal strategy is the posterior average of the optimal strategies the investor would have held in each state assuming the Markov chain remains in that state. Finally, we implement a number of historical backtests to demonstrate the performance of the optimal portfolio.
In this work we apply the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM) described in Sirignano and Spiliopoulos (2018) to solve a number of partial differential equations that arise in quantitative finance applications including option pricing, optimal execution, mean field games, etc. The main idea behind DGM is to represent the unknown function of interest using a deep neural network. A key feature of this approach is the fact that, unlike other commonly used numerical approaches such as finite difference methods, it is mesh-free. As such, it does not suffer (as much as other numerical methods) from the curse of dimensionality associated with highdimensional PDEs and PDE systems. The main goals of this paper are to elucidate the features, capabilities and limitations of DGM by analyzing aspects of its implementation for a number of different PDEs and PDE systems. Additionally, we present: (1) a brief overview of PDEs in quantitative finance along with numerical methods for solving them; (2) a brief overview of deep learning and, in particular, the notion of neural networks; (3) a discussion of the theoretical foundations of DGM with a focus on the justification of why this method is expected to perform well.
We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting the commodity and selling it on the spot market. The investor is exposed to price uncertainty and uncertainty in the amount of available resources in the reserves (i.e. technical uncertainty). She does, however, learn about the reserve levels through time, which is a key determinant in the decision to invest. To model the reserve level uncertainty and how she learns about the estimates of the commodity in the reserve, we adopt a continuous-time Markov chain model to value the option to invest in the reserve and investigate the value that learning has prior to investment.
Portfolio management problems are often divided into two types: active and passive, where the objective is to outperform and track a preselected benchmark, respectively. Here, we formulate and solve a dynamic asset allocation problem that combines these two objectives in a unified framework. We look to maximize the expected growth rate differential between the wealth of the investors portfolio and that of a performance benchmark while penalizing risk-weighted deviations from a given tracking portfolio. Using stochastic control techniques, we provide explicit closed-form expressions for the optimal allocation and we show how the optimal strategy can be related to the growth optimal portfolio. The admissible benchmarks encompass the class of functionally generated portfolios (FGPs), which include the market portfolio, as the only requirement is that they depend only on the prevailing asset values. Finally, some numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the risk-reward profile of the optimal allocation.
