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Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and classification tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that commonly used metrics (e.g. test log-likelihood) can be misleading. Our experiments also indicate that inference innovations designed to capture structure in the posterior do not necessarily produce high quality posterior approximations.
The idea to distinguish and quantify two important types of uncertainty, often referred to as aleatoric and epistemic, has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In this paper, we consider ensemble-bas
Bayesian optimization is a class of global optimization techniques. It regards the underlying objective function as a realization of a Gaussian process. Although the outputs of Bayesian optimization are random according to the Gaussian process assump
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually over-parameterized spa
We describe Bayesian Layers, a module designed for fast experimentation with neural network uncertainty. It extends neural network libraries with drop-in replacements for common layers. This enables composition via a unified abstraction over determin
In this paper, we propose an analytical method for performing tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI) in Bayesian neural networks. The method enables the analytical Gaussian inference of the posterior mean vector and diagonal covariance matri