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تسجيل مستخدم جديدPredicting pregnancy using large-scale data from a womens health tracking mobile application
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Predicting pregnancy has been a fundamental problem in womens health for more than 50 years. Previous datasets have been collected via carefully curated medical studies, but the recent growth of womens health tracking mobile apps offers potential for reaching a much broader population. However, the feasibility of predicting pregnancy from mobile health tracking data is unclear. Here we develop four models -- a logistic regression model, and 3 LSTM models -- to predict a womans probability of becoming pregnant using data from a womens health tracking app, Clue by BioWink GmbH. Evaluating our models on a dataset of 79 million logs from 65,276 women with ground truth pregnancy test data, we show that our predicted pregnancy probabilities meaningfully stratify women: women in the top 10% of predicted probabilities have a 89% chance of becoming pregnant over 6 menstrual cycles, as compared to a 27% chance for women in the bottom 10%. We develop a technique for extracting interpretable time trends from our deep learning models, and show these trends are consistent with previous fertility research. Our findings illustrate the potential that womens health tracking data offers for predicting pregnancy on a broader population; we conclude by discussing the steps needed to fulfill this potential.
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