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تسجيل مستخدم جديدMoores Law in CLEAR Light
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The inability of Moores Law and other figure-of-merits (FOMs) to accurately explain the technology development of the semiconductor industry demands a holistic merit to guide the industry. Here we introduce a FOM termed CLEAR that accurately postdicts technology developments since the 1940s until today, and predicts photonics as a logical extension to keep-up the pace of information-handling machines. We show that CLEAR (Capability-to-Latency-Energy-Amount-Resistance) is multi-hierarchical applying to the device, interconnect, and system level. Being a holistic FOM, we show that empirical trends such as Moores Law and the Makimotos wave are special cases of the universal CLEAR merit. Looking ahead, photonic board- and chip-level technologies are able to continue the observed doubling rate of the CLEAR value every 12 months, while electronic technologies are unable to keep pace.
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