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We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing feedback loops.
Understanding the statistical properties of recurrence intervals of extreme events is crucial to risk assessment and management of complex systems. The probability distributions and correlations of recurrence intervals for many systems have been exte
Twenty years ago Breiman (2001) called to our attention a significant cultural division in modeling and data analysis between the stochastic data models and the algorithmic models. Out of his deep concern that the statistical community was so deeply
Trading frictions are stochastic. They are, moreover, in many instances fast-mean reverting. Here, we study how to optimally trade in a market with stochastic price impact and study approximations to the resulting optimal control problem using singul
I revisit two theories of cell differentiation in multicellular organisms published a half-century ago, Stuart Kauffmans global gene regulatory dynamics (GGRD) model and Roy Brittens and Eric Davidsons modular gene regulatory network (MGRN) model, in
In this paper, we investigate the cooling-off effect (opposite to the magnet effect) from two aspects. Firstly, from the viewpoint of dynamics, we study the existence of the cooling-off effect by following the dynamical evolution of some financial va