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تسجيل مستخدم جديدStudy of sunspot group morphological variations leading to flaring events
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It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot data, the targeted phenomenon is the pre-flare behaviour of the strong horizontal gradients of the magnetic field at the location of the flare. The empirical basis of the work is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen sunspot Data) sunspot catalogue. Case studies of two active regions and five X-flares have been carried out to find possible candidates for pre-flare signatures. It has been found that the following properties of the temporal variations of horizontal magnetic field gradient are promising for flare forecast: the speed of its growth, its maximal value, its decrease after the maximum until the flare and the rate of its fluctuation.
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We analyzed temporal and periodic behavior of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C, M, or X class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for the almost two solar cycles (1996 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) The temporal vari
ation of monthly means of daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs are different and these differences are also varying from cycle to cycle; temporal profile of non-flaring ARs are wider than the flaring ones during the solar cycle 23, while they are almost the same during the current cycle 24. The second peak (second maximum) of flaring ARs are strongly dominate during current cycle 24, while this difference is not such a remarkable during cycle 23. The amplitude of SSCs in the non-flaring ARs are comparable during the first and second peaks (maxima) of the current solar cycle, while the first peak is almost not existent in case of the flaring ARs. ii) Periodic variations observed in SSCs of flaring and non-flaring ARs are quite different in both MTM spectrum and wavelet scalograms and these variations are also different from one cycle to another; the largest detected period in the flaring ARs is 113 days, while there are much higher periodicities (327, 312, and 256 days) in non-flaring ARs. There are no meaningful periodicities in MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 45 days during solar cycle 24, while a 113 days periodicity detected from flaring ARs of solar cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest period is 72 days during solar cycle 24, while the largest period is 327 days during current cycle.
One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e. on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e. days) using solar proxies as
inputs. Preminger and Walton (2005, GRL, 32, 14109) showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar-rotational effects and by including an additional term that captures long-term variations. Our results show that long-term variability cannot be reconstructed from the short-term response of the spectral irradiance, which cautions the extension of solar proxy models to these timescales. In addition, we find that the solar response is nonlinear in such a way that cannot be corrected simply by applying a rescaling to sunspot area.
In a recent work, Kilcik et al. (2017), have detected the temporal and periodic behavior of sunspot counts (SSC) in flaring (i.e. C, M, or X class flares), and non-flaring active regions for the last two solar cycles, covering the period: 1996 - 2016
. The main results obtained are: 1) The temporal behavior of monthly means of daily total SSC in flaring and non-flaring active regions are different and these differences are also varying from cycle to cycle; 2) The periodicities detected in SSC of flaring and non-flaring active regions are quite different and these variations are also different from one cycle to another; the highest detected period in the flaring active regions is 113 days, while there are much higher periodicities (327, 312, and 256 days) in non-flaring regions. The detection of typical different periodicities in flaring and non-flaring regions can suggests both important differences and physical interpretation in the magneto-hydrodynamic behavior of the Sun. For this reason in the present paper we show a further periodicity analysis of the sunspot counts in flaring and in non-flaring active regions using the same data source of that used by the above cited authors and applying a powerful wavelet analysis tool which is particularly useful to detect multiscale features of complex unsteady and unevenly sampled time series. In order to futher support the differences and similarities found in the time behavior of SSC in flaring and non-flaring regions, we also computed the behavior of the wavelet entropy, a proper time function which allow us to measure the degree of complexity in the dynamics of the related time series.
In this study, we used two methods to investigate the periodic behavior of sunspot counts in four categories for the time period January 1986-October 2013. These categories include the counts from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E, and F), an
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Penumbrae are known to be area of mainly horizontal magnetic field surrounding umbrae of relatively large and mature sunspots. In this paper, we observationally studied the formation of penumbrae in NOAA10978, where several penumbral formations were
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