Siegel modular forms of genus 2 and level 2: cohomological computations and conjectures

We study the cohomology of certain local systems on moduli spaces of principally polarized abelian surfaces with a level 2 structure. The trace of Frobenius on the alternating sum of the etale cohomology groups of these local systems can be calculated by counting the number of pointed curves of genus 2 with a prescribed number of Weierstrass points over the given finite field. This cohomology is intimately related to vector-valued Siegel modular forms. The corresponding scheme in level 1 was carried out in [FvdG]. Here we extend this to level 2 where new phenomena appear. We determine the contribution of the Eisenstein cohomology together with its S_6-action for the full level 2 structure and on the basis of our computations we make precise conjectures on the endoscopic contribution. We also make a prediction about the existence of a vector-valued analogue of the Saito-Kurokawa lift. Assuming these conjectures that are based on ample numerical evidence, we obtain the traces of the Hecke-operators T(p) for p < 41 on the remaining spaces of `genuine Siegel modular forms. We present a number of examples of 1-dimensional spaces of eigenforms where these traces coincide with the Hecke eigenvalues. We hope that the experts on lifting and on endoscopy will be able to prove our conjectures.