Vere-Jones Self-Similar Branching Model


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Motivated by its potential application to earthquake statistics, we study the exactly self-similar branching process introduced recently by Vere-Jones, which extends the ETAS class of conditional branching point-processes of triggered seismicity. One of the main ingredient of Vere-Jones model is that the power law distribution of magnitudes m of daughters of first-generation of a mother of magnitude m has two branches m<m with exponent beta-d and m>m with exponent beta+d, where beta and d are two positive parameters. We predict that the distribution of magnitudes of events triggered by a mother of magnitude $m$ over all generations has also two branches m<m with exponent beta-h and m>m with exponent beta+h, with h= d sqrt{1-s}, where s is the fraction of triggered events. This corresponds to a renormalization of the exponent d into h by the hierarchy of successive generations of triggered events. The empirical absence of such two-branched distributions implies, if this model is seriously considered, that the earth is close to criticality (s close to 1) so that beta - h approx beta + h approx beta. We also find that, for a significant part of the parameter space, the distribution of magnitudes over a full catalog summed over an average steady flow of spontaneous sources (immigrants) reproduces the distribution of the spontaneous sources and is blind to the exponents beta, d of the distribution of triggered events.

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