Cancer development is a multistep process often starting with a single cell in which a number of epigenetic and genetic alterations have accumulated thus transforming it into a tumor cell. The progeny of such a single benign tumor cell expands in the tissue and can at some point progress to malignant tumor cells until a detectable tumor is formed. The dynamics from the early phase of a single cell to a detectable tumor with billions of tumor cells are complex and still not fully resolved, not even for the well-known prototype of multistage carcinogenesis, the adenoma-adenocarcinoma sequence of colorectal cancer. Mathematical models of such carcinogenesis are frequently tested and calibrated based on reported age-specific incidence rates of cancer, but they usually require calibration of four or more parameters due to the wide range of processes these models aim to reflect. We present a cell-based model, which focuses on the competition between wild-type and tumor cells in colonic crypts, with which we are able reproduce epidemilogical incidence rates of colon cancer. Additionally, the fraction of cancerous tumors with precancerous lesions predicted by the model agrees with clinical estimates. The match between model and reported data suggests that the fate of tumor development is dominated by the early phase of tumor growth and progression long before a tumor becomes detectable. Due to the focus on the early phase of tumor development, the model has only a single fit parameter, the replacement rate of stem cells in the crypt. We find this rate to be consistent with recent experimental estimates.
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