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The paper addresses the question of lives versus livelihood in an SIRD model augmented with a macroeconomic structure. The constraints on the availability of health facilities - both infrastructure and health workers determine the probability of receiving treatment which is found to be higher for the patients with severe infection than the patients with mild infection for the specific parametric configuration of the paper. Distinguishing between two types of direct intervention policy - hard lockdown and soft lockdown, the study derives alternative policy options available to the government. The study further indicates that the soft lockdown policy is optimal from a public policy perspective under the specific parametric configuration considered in this paper.
We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) c
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical model adju
COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an infected person i
As a common strategy of contagious disease containment, lockdown will inevitably weaken the economy. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic underscores the trade-off arising from public health and economic cost. An optimal lockdown policy to resolve this trad
COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented global health crisis in the last 100 years. Its economic, social and health impact continues to grow and is likely to end up as one of the worst global disasters since the 1918 pandemic and the World Wars