Stochastic optimization under time drift: iterate averaging, step decay, and high probability guarantees

We consider the problem of minimizing a convex function that is evolving in time according to unknown and possibly stochastic dynamics. Such problems abound in the machine learning and signal processing literature, under the names of concept drift and stochastic tracking. We provide novel non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for stochastic algorithms with iterate averaging, focusing on bounds valid both in expectation and with high probability. Notably, we show that the tracking efficiency of the proximal stochastic gradient method depends only logarithmically on the initialization quality, when equipped with a step-decay schedule. The results moreover naturally extend to settings where the dynamics depend jointly on time and on the decision variable itself, as in the performative prediction framework.