ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Implementing the BBE Agent-Based Model of a Sports-Betting Exchange

103   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Dave Cliff
 تاريخ النشر 2021
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

We describe three independent implementations of a new agent-based model (ABM) that simulates a contemporary sports-betting exchange, such as those offered commercially by companies including Betfair, Smarkets, and Betdaq. The motivation for constructing this ABM, which is known as the Bristol Betting Exchange (BBE), is so that it can serve as a synthetic data generator, producing large volumes of data that can be used to develop and test new betting strategies via advanced data analytics and machine learning techniques. Betting exchanges act as online platforms on which bettors can find willing counterparties to a bet, and they do this in a way that is directly comparable to the manner in which electronic financial exchanges, such as major stock markets, act as platforms that allow traders to find willing counterparties to buy from or sell to: the platform aggregates and anonymises orders from multiple participants, showing a summary of the market that is updated in real-time. In the first instance, BBE is aimed primarily at producing synthetic data for in-play betting (also known as in-race or in-game betting) where bettors can place bets on the outcome of a track-race event, such as a horse race, after the race has started and for as long as the race is underway, with betting only ceasing when the race ends. The rationale for, and design of, BBE has been described in detail in a previous paper that we summarise here, before discussing our comparative results which contrast a single-threaded implementation in Python, a multi-threaded implementation in Python, and an implementation where Python header-code calls simulations of the track-racing events written in OpenCL that execute on a 640-core GPU -- this runs approximately 1000 times faster than the single-threaded Python. Our source-code for BBE is freely available on GitHub.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

137 - Roberto Serra 2013
In this work we introduce some preliminary analyses on the role of a semi-permeable membrane in the dynamics of a stochastic model of catalytic reaction sets (CRSs) of molecules. The results of the simulations performed on ensembles of randomly gener ated reaction schemes highlight remarkable differences between this very simple protocell description model and the classical case of the continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR). In particular, in the CSTR case, distinct simulations with the same reaction scheme reach the same dynamical equilibrium, whereas, in the protocell case, simulations with identical reaction schemes can reach very different dynamical states, despite starting from the same initial conditions.
This paper considers a statistical signal processing problem involving agent based models of financial markets which at a micro-level are driven by socially aware and risk- averse trading agents. These agents trade (buy or sell) stocks by exploiting information about the decisions of previous agents (social learning) via an order book in addition to a private (noisy) signal they receive on the value of the stock. We are interested in the following: (1) Modelling the dynamics of these risk averse agents, (2) Sequential detection of a market shock based on the behaviour of these agents. Structural results which characterize social learning under a risk measure, CVaR (Conditional Value-at-risk), are presented and formulation of the Bayesian change point detection problem is provided. The structural results exhibit two interesting prop- erties: (i) Risk averse agents herd more often than risk neutral agents (ii) The stopping set in the sequential detection problem is non-convex. The framework is validated on data from the Yahoo! Tech Buzz game dataset.
Classical deterministic simulations of epidemiological processes, such as those based on System Dynamics, produce a single result based on a fixed set of input parameters with no variance between simulations. Input parameters are subsequently modifie d on these simulations using Monte-Carlo methods, to understand how changes in the input parameters affect the spread of results for the simulation. Agent Based simulations are able to produce different output results on each run based on knowledge of the local interactions of the underlying agents and without making any changes to the input parameters. In this paper we compare the influence and effect of variation within these two distinct simulation paradigms and show that the Agent Based simulation of the epidemiological SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered) model is more effective at capturing the natural variation within SIR compared to an equivalent model using System Dynamics with Monte-Carlo simulation. To demonstrate this effect, the SIR model is implemented using both System Dynamics (with Monte-Carlo simulation) and Agent Based Modelling based on previously published empirical data.
Managing the prediction of metrics in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task. An efficient way is by monitoring the dynamics of a limit order book to identify the information edge. This paper describes the first publicly available ben chmark dataset of high-frequency limit order markets for mid-price prediction. We extracted normalized data representations of time series data for five stocks from the NASDAQ Nordic stock market for a time period of ten consecutive days, leading to a dataset of ~4,000,000 time series samples in total. A day-based anchored cross-validation experimental protocol is also provided that can be used as a benchmark for comparing the performance of state-of-the-art methodologies. Performance of baseline approaches are also provided to facilitate experimental comparisons. We expect that such a large-scale dataset can serve as a testbed for devising novel solutions of expert systems for high-frequency limit order book data analysis.
Motivation: Agent-based modeling is an indispensable tool for studying complex biological systems. However, existing simulators do not always take full advantage of modern hardware and often have a field-specific software design. Results: We presen t a novel simulation platform called BioDynaMo that alleviates both of these problems. BioDynaMo features a general-purpose and high-performance simulation engine. We demonstrate that BioDynaMo can be used to simulate use cases in: neuroscience, oncology, and epidemiology. For each use case we validate our findings with experimental data or an analytical solution. Our performance results show that BioDynaMo performs up to three orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art baseline. This improvement makes it feasible to simulate each use case with one billion agents on a single server, showcasing the potential BioDynaMo has for computational biology research. Availability: BioDynaMo is an open-source project under the Apache 2.0 license and is available at www.biodynamo.org. Instructions to reproduce the results are available in supplementary information. Contact: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Supplementary information: Available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4501515
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا