اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدSkillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar
288
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Precipitation nowcasting, the high-resolution forecasting of precipitation up to two hours ahead, supports the real-world socio-economic needs of many sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision-making. State-of-the-art operational nowcasting methods typically advect precipitation fields with radar-based wind estimates, and struggle to capture important non-linear events such as convective initiations. Recently introduced deep learning methods use radar to directly predict future rain rates, free of physical constraints. While they accurately predict low-intensity rainfall, their operational utility is limited because their lack of constraints produces blurry nowcasts at longer lead times, yielding poor performance on more rare medium-to-heavy rain events. To address these challenges, we present a Deep Generative Model for the probabilistic nowcasting of precipitation from radar. Our model produces realistic and spatio-temporally consistent predictions over regions up to 1536 km x 1280 km and with lead times from 5-90 min ahead. In a systematic evaluation by more than fifty expert forecasters from the Met Office, our generative model ranked first for its accuracy and usefulness in 88% of cases against two competitive methods, demonstrating its decision-making value and ability to provide physical insight to real-world experts. When verified quantitatively, these nowcasts are skillful without resorting to blurring. We show that generative nowcasting can provide probabilistic predictions that improve forecast value and support operational utility, and at resolutions and lead times where alternative methods struggle.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
A nowcast is a type of weather forecast which makes predictions in the very short term, typically less than two hours - a period in which traditional numerical weather prediction can be limited. This type of weather prediction has important applicati
ons for commercial aviation; public and outdoor events; and the construction industry, power utilities, and ground transportation services that conduct much of their work outdoors. Importantly, one of the key needs for nowcasting systems is in the provision of accurate warnings of adverse weather events, such as heavy rain and flooding, for the protection of life and property in such situations. Typical nowcasting approaches are based on simple extrapolation models applied to observations, primarily rainfall radar. In this paper we review existing techniques to radar-based nowcasting from environmental sciences, as well as the statistical approaches that are applicable from the field of machine learning. Nowcasting continues to be an important component of operational systems and we believe new advances are possible with new partnerships between the environmental science and machine learning communities.
The impacts of new real estate developments are strongly associated to its population distribution (types and compositions of households, incomes, social demographics) conditioned on aspects such as dwelling typology, price, location, and floor level
. This paper presents a Machine Learning based method to model the population distribution of upcoming developments of new buildings within larger neighborhood/condo settings. We use a real data set from Ecopark Township, a real estate development project in Hanoi, Vietnam, where we study two machine learning algorithms from the deep generative models literature to create a population of synthetic agents: Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) and Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGAN). A large experimental study was performed, showing that the CVAE outperforms both the empirical distribution, a non-trivial baseline model, and the CGAN in estimating the population distribution of new real estate development projects.
We propose Intermediate Layer Optimization (ILO), a novel optimization algorithm for solving inverse problems with deep generative models. Instead of optimizing only over the initial latent code, we progressively change the input layer obtaining succ
essively more expressive generators. To explore the higher dimensional spaces, our method searches for latent codes that lie within a small $l_1$ ball around the manifold induced by the previous layer. Our theoretical analysis shows that by keeping the radius of the ball relatively small, we can improve the established error bound for compressed sensing with deep generative models. We empirically show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods introduced in StyleGAN-2 and PULSE for a wide range of inverse problems including inpainting, denoising, super-resolution and compressed sensing.
Quantum physics experiments produce interesting phenomena such as interference or entanglement, which is a core property of numerous future quantum technologies. The complex relationship between a quantum experiments structure and its entanglement pr
operties is essential to fundamental research in quantum optics but is difficult to intuitively understand. We present the first deep generative model of quantum optics experiments where a variational autoencoder (QOVAE) is trained on a dataset of experimental setups. In a series of computational experiments, we investigate the learned representation of the QOVAE and its internal understanding of the quantum optics world. We demonstrate that the QOVAE learns an intrepretable representation of quantum optics experiments and the relationship between experiment structure and entanglement. We show the QOVAE is able to generate novel experiments for highly entangled quantum states with specific distributions that match its training data. Importantly, we are able to fully interpret how the QOVAE structures its latent space, finding curious patterns that we can entirely explain in terms of quantum physics. The results demonstrate how we can successfully use and understand the internal representations of deep generative models in a complex scientific domain. The QOVAE and the insights from our investigations can be immediately applied to other physical systems throughout fundamental scientific research.
In recent years, advances in machine learning algorithms, cheap computational resources, and the availability of big data have spurred the deep learning revolution in various application domains. In particular, supervised learning techniques in image
analysis have led to superhuman performance in various tasks, such as classification, localization, and segmentation, while unsupervised learning techniques based on increasingly advanced generative models have been applied to generate high-resolution synthetic images indistinguishable from real images. In this paper we consider a state-of-the-art machine learning model for image inpainting, namely a Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network based on a fully convolutional architecture with a contextual attention mechanism. We show that this model can successfully be transferred to the setting of digital elevation models (DEMs) for the purpose of generating semantically plausible data for filling voids. Training, testing and experimentation is done on GeoTIFF data from various regions in Norway, made openly available by the Norwegian Mapping Authority.
الأسئلة المقترحة
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
