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A video prediction model that generalizes to diverse scenes would enable intelligent agents such as robots to perform a variety of tasks via planning with the model. However, while existing video prediction models have produced promising results on small datasets, they suffer from severe underfitting when trained on large and diverse datasets. To address this underfitting challenge, we first observe that the ability to train larger video prediction models is often bottlenecked by the memory constraints of GPUs or TPUs. In parallel, deep hierarchical latent variable models can produce higher quality predictions by capturing the multi-level stochasticity of future observations, but end-to-end optimization of such models is notably difficult. Our key insight is that greedy and modular optimization of hierarchical autoencoders can simultaneously address both the memory constraints and the optimization challenges of large-scale video prediction. We introduce Greedy Hierarchical Variational Autoencoders (GHVAEs), a method that learns high-fidelity video predictions by greedily training each level of a hierarchical autoencoder. In comparison to state-of-the-art models, GHVAEs provide 17-55% gains in prediction performance on four video datasets, a 35-40% higher success rate on real robot tasks, and can improve performance monotonically by simply adding more modules.
Deep learning has enabled algorithms to generate realistic images. However, accurately predicting long video sequences requires understanding long-term dependencies and remains an open challenge. While existing video prediction models succeed at gene
Predicting the future in real-world settings, particularly from raw sensory observations such as images, is exceptionally challenging. Real-world events can be stochastic and unpredictable, and the high dimensionality and complexity of natural images
Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representati
To synthesize a realistic action sequence based on a single human image, it is crucial to model both motion patterns and diversity in the action video. This paper proposes an Action Conditional Temporal Variational AutoEncoder (ACT-VAE) to improve mo
Much of recent research has been devoted to video prediction and generation, yet most of the previous works have demonstrated only limited success in generating videos on short-term horizons. The hierarchical video prediction method by Villegas et al