اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدWhat sunspots are whispering about covid-19?
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Several studies point to the antimicrobial effects of ELF electromagnetic fields. Such fields have accompanied life from the very beginning, and it is possible that they played a significant role in its emergence and evolution. However, the literature on the biological effects of ELF electromagnetic fields is controversial, and we still lack an understanding of the complex mechanisms that make such effects, observed in many experiments, possible. The Covid-19 pandemic has shown how fragile we are in the face of powerful processes operating in the biosphere. We believe that understanding the role of ELF electromagnetic fields in regulating the biosphere is important in our fight against Covid-19, and research in this direction should be intensified.
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We present COVID-Q, a set of 1,690 questions about COVID-19 from 13 sources, which we annotate into 15 question categories and 207 question clusters. The most common questions in our dataset asked about transmission, prevention, and societal effects
of COVID, and we found that many questions that appeared in multiple sources were not answered by any FAQ websites of reputable organizations such as the CDC and FDA. We post our dataset publicly at https://github.com/JerryWei03/COVID-Q. For classifying questions into 15 categories, a BERT baseline scored 58.1% accuracy when trained on 20 examples per category, and for a question clustering task, a BERT + triplet loss baseline achieved 49.5% accuracy. We hope COVID-Q can help either for direct use in developing applied systems or as a domain-specific resource for model evaluation.
The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions. However, often ig
nored complexities have generated confusion around use of the metric. This is particularly apparent with the emergent pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. We address some of these misconceptions, namely, how R changes over time, varies over space, and relates to epidemic size by referencing the mathematical definition of R and examples from the current pandemic. We hope that a better appreciation of the uses, nuances, and limitations of R facilitates a better understanding of epidemic spread, epidemic severity, and the effects of interventions in the context of SARS-CoV-2.
The study carries out predictive modeling based on publicly available COVID-19 data for the duration 01 April to 20 June 2020 pertaining to India and five of its most infected states: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, and Rajasthan using susce
ptible, infected, recovered, and dead (SIRD) model. The basic reproduction number R0 is derived by exponential growth method using RStudio package R0. The differential equations reflecting SIRD model have been solved using Python 3.7.4 on Jupyter Notebook platform. For visualization, Python Matplotlib 3.2.1 package is used. The study offers insights on peak-date, peak number of COVID-19 infections, and end-date pertaining to India and five of its states. The results could be leveraged by political leadership, health authorities, and industry doyens for policy planning and execution.
Many countries have passed their first COVID-19 epidemic peak. Traditional epidemiological models describe this as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions that pushed the growth rate below the recovery rate. In this new phase of the pandemic man
y countries show an almost linear growth of confirmed cases for extended time-periods. This new containment regime is hard to explain by traditional models where infection numbers either grow explosively until herd immunity is reached, or the epidemic is completely suppressed (zero new cases). Here we offer an explanation of this puzzling observation based on the structure of contact networks. We show that for any given transmission rate there exists a critical number of social contacts, $D_c$, below which linear growth and low infection prevalence must occur. Above $D_c$ traditional epidemiological dynamics takes place, as e.g. in SIR-type models. When calibrating our corresponding model to empirical estimates of the transmission rate and the number of days being contagious, we find $D_csim 7.2$. Assuming realistic contact networks with a degree of about 5, and assuming that lockdown measures would reduce that to household-size (about 2.5), we reproduce actual infection curves with a remarkable precision, without fitting or fine-tuning of parameters. In particular we compare the US and Austria, as examples for one country that initially did not impose measures and one that responded with a severe lockdown early on. Our findings question the applicability of standard compartmental models to describe the COVID-19 containment phase. The probability to observe linear growth in these is practically zero.
Behavioral gender differences are known to exist for a wide range of human activities including the way people communicate, move, provision themselves, or organize leisure activities. Using mobile phone data from 1.2 million devices in Austria (15% o
f the population) across the first phase of the COVID-19 crisis, we quantify gender-specific patterns of communication intensity, mobility, and circadian rhythms. We show the resilience of behavioral patterns with respect to the shock imposed by a strict nation-wide lock-down that Austria experienced in the beginning of the crisis with severe implications on public and private life. We find drastic differences in gender-specific responses during the different phases of the pandemic. After the lock-down gender differences in mobility and communication patterns increased massively, while sleeping patterns and circadian rhythms tend to synchronize. In particular, women had fewer but longer phone calls than men during the lock-down. Mobility declined massively for both genders, however, women tend to restrict their movement stronger than men. Women showed a stronger tendency to avoid shopping centers and more men frequented recreational areas. After the lock-down, males returned back to normal quicker than women; young age-cohorts return much quicker. Differences are driven by the young and adolescent population. An age stratification highlights the role of retirement on behavioral differences. We find that the length of a day of men and women is reduced by one hour. We discuss the findings in the light of gender-specific coping strategies in response to stress and crisis.
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