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We propose a family of reproducing kernel ridge estimators for nonparametric and semiparametric policy evaluation. The framework includes (i) treatment effects of the population, of subpopulations, and of alternative populations; (ii) the decomposition of a total effect into a direct effect and an indirect effect (mediated by a particular mechanism); and (iii) effects of sequences of treatments. Treatment and covariates may be discrete or continuous, and low, high, or infinite dimensional. We consider estimation of means, increments, and distributions of counterfactual outcomes. Each estimator is an inner product in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), with a one line, closed form solution. For the nonparametric case, we prove uniform consistency and provide finite sample rates of convergence. For the semiparametric case, we prove root n consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency by finite sample arguments. We evaluate our estimators in simulations then estimate continuous, heterogeneous, incremental, and mediated treatment effects of the US Jobs Corps training program for disadvantaged youth.
The policy relevant treatment effect (PRTE) measures the average effect of switching from a status-quo policy to a counterfactual policy. Estimation of the PRTE involves estimation of multiple preliminary parameters, including propensity scores, cond
For a certain scaling of the initialization of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), wide neural networks (NN) have been shown to be well approximated by reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) methods. Recent empirical work showed that, for some classi
The goal of nonparametric regression is to recover an underlying regression function from noisy observations, under the assumption that the regression function belongs to a pre-specified infinite dimensional function space. In the online setting, whe
Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in the recent policy evaluation literature (see e.g., Heckman and Vytlacil, 2005). This paper proposes a nonparametric test for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects in a treatment
Consider a causal structure with endogeneity (i.e., unobserved confoundedness) in empirical data, where an instrumental variable is available. In this setting, we show that the mean social welfare function can be identified and represented via the ma