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We derive and asymptotically analyze mass-action models for disease spread that include transient pair formation and dissociation. Populations of unpaired susceptibles and infecteds are distinguished from the population of three types of pairs of individuals; both susceptible, one susceptible and one infected, and both infected. Disease transmission can occur only within a pair consisting of one susceptible individual and one infected individual. By considering the fast pair formation and fast pair dissociation limits, we use a perturbation expansion to formally derive a uniformly valid approximation for the dynamics of the total infected and susceptible populations. Under different parameter regimes, we derive uniformly valid effective equations for the total infected population and compare their results to those of the full mass-action model. Our results are derived from the fundamental mass-action system without implicitly imposing transmission mechanisms such as that used in frequency-dependent models. They provide a new formulation for effective pairing models and are compared with previous models.
This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to
We demonstrate the ability of statistical data assimilation to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an epidemiological model for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19. Our context is an effort to inform p
Population dynamics of a competitive two-species system under the influence of random events are analyzed and expressions for the steady-state population mean, fluctuations, and cross-correlation of the two species are presented. It is shown that ran
We examine a modification of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (FKPP) process in which the diffusing substance requires a parent density field for reproduction. A biological example would be the density of diffusing spores (propagules) and the
A molecular dynamics calculation of the amino acid polar requirement is presented and used to score the canonical genetic code. Monte Carlo simulation shows that this computational polar requirement has been optimized by the canonical genetic code mo