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Many social and other networks exhibit stable size scaling relationships, such that features such as mean degree or reciprocation rates change slowly or are approximately constant as the number of vertices increases. Statistical network models built on top of simple Bernoulli baseline (or reference) measures often behave unrealistically in this respect, leading to the development of sparse reference models that preserve features such as mean degree scaling. In this paper, we generalize recent work on the micro-foundations of such reference models to the case of sparse directed graphs with non-vanishing reciprocity, providing a dynamic process interpretation of the emergence of stable macroscopic behavior.
Exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) can be understood in terms of a set of structural biases that act on an underlying reference distribution. This distribution determines many aspects of the behavior and interpretation of the ERGM familie
Models of dynamic networks --- networks that evolve over time --- have manifold applications. We develop a discrete-time generative model for social network evolution that inherits the richness and flexibility of the class of exponential-family rando
We propose a latent topic model with a Markovian transition for process data, which consist of time-stamped events recorded in a log file. Such data are becoming more widely available in computer-based educational assessment with complex problem solv
Its conceptual appeal and effectiveness has made latent factor modeling an indispensable tool for multivariate analysis. Despite its popularity across many fields, there are outstanding methodological challenges that have hampered practical deploymen
We address the problem of dynamic variable selection in time series regression with unknown residual variances, where the set of active predictors is allowed to evolve over time. To capture time-varying variable selection uncertainty, we introduce ne