ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Smoothed AIC (S-AIC) and Smoothed BIC (S-BIC) are very widely used in model averaging and are very easily to implement. Especially, the optimal model averaging method MMA and JMA have only been well developed in linear models. Only by modifying, they can be applied to other models. But S-AIC and S-BIC can be used in all situations where AIC and BIC can be calculated. In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of two commonly used model averaging estimators, the S-AIC and S-BIC estimators, under the standard asymptotic with general fixed parameter setup. In addition, the resulting coverage probability in Buckland et al. (1997) is not studied accurately, but it is claimed that it will be close to the intended. Our derivation make it possible to study accurately. Besides, we also prove that the confidence interval construction method in Hjort and Claeskens (2003) still works in linear regression with normal distribution error. Both the simulation and applied example support our theory conclusion.
Model averaging is an alternative to model selection for dealing with model uncertainty, which is widely used and very valuable. However, most of the existing model averaging methods are proposed based on the least squares loss function, which could
We introduce an information criterion, PCIC, for predictive evaluation based on quasi-posterior distributions. It is regarded as a natural generalisation of the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and can be computed via a single Markov ch
Large, non-Gaussian spatial datasets pose a considerable modeling challenge as the dependence structure implied by the model needs to be captured at different scales, while retaining feasible inference. Skew-normal and skew-t distributions have only
The analysis of record-breaking events is of interest in fields such as climatology, hydrology, economy or sports. In connection with the record occurrence, we propose three distribution-free statistics for the changepoint detection problem. They are
Contributed discussion to the paper of Drton and Plummer (2017), presented before the Royal Statistical Society on 5th October 2016.