اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدA Fresh Look at the Hot Hand Paradox
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S. Redner
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We discuss the hot hand paradox within the framework of the backward Kolmogorov equation. We use this approach to understand the apparently paradoxical features of the statistics of fixed-length sequences of heads and tails upon repeated fair coin flips. In particular, we compute the average waiting time for the appearance of specific sequences. For sequences of length 2, the average time until the appearance of the sequence HH (heads-heads) equals 6, while the waiting time for the sequence HT (heads-tails) equals 4. These results require a few simple calculational steps by the Kolmogorov approach. We also give complete results for sequences of lengths 3, 4, and 5; the extension to longer sequences is straightforward (albeit more tedious). Finally, we compute the waiting times $T_{nrm H}$ for an arbitrary length sequences of all heads and $T_{nrm(HT)}$ for the sequence of alternating heads and tails. For large $n$, $T_{2nrm H}sim 3 T_{nrm(HT)}$.
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