اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدAdaptive Variable Selection for Sequential Prediction in Multivariate Dynamic Models
93
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant models. Based on formal Bayesian decision-theoretic reasoning, we develop a time-adaptive approach to exploring, weighting, combining and selecting models that differ in terms of predictive variables included. The adaptivity allows for changes in the sets of favored models over time, and is guided by the specific forecasting goals. A synthetic example illustrates how decision-guided variable selection differs from traditional Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and standard model averaging. An applied study in one motivating application of long-term macroeconomic forecasting highlights the utility of the new approach in terms of improving predictions as well as its ability to identify and interpret different sets of relevant models over time with respect to specific, defined forecasting goals.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
This paper considers the problem of variable selection in regression models in the case of functional variables that may be mixed with other type of variables (scalar, multivariate, directional, etc.). Our proposal begins with a simple null model and
sequentially selects a new variable to be incorporated into the model based on the use of distance correlation proposed by cite{Szekely2007}. For the sake of simplicity, this paper only uses additive models. However, the proposed algorithm may assess the type of contribution (linear, non linear, ...) of each variable. The algorithm has shown quite promising results when applied to simulations and real data sets.
When fitting statistical models, some predictors are often found to be correlated with each other, and functioning together. Many group variable selection methods are developed to select the groups of predictors that are closely related to the contin
uous or categorical response. These existing methods usually assume the group structures are well known. For example, variables with similar practical meaning, or dummy variables created by categorical data. However, in practice, it is impractical to know the exact group structure, especially when the variable dimensional is large. As a result, the group variable selection results may be selected. To solve the challenge, we propose a two-stage approach that combines a variable clustering stage and a group variable stage for the group variable selection problem. The variable clustering stage uses information from the data to find a group structure, which improves the performance of the existing group variable selection methods. For ultrahigh dimensional data, where the predictors are much larger than observations, we incorporated a variable screening method in the first stage and shows the advantages of such an approach. In this article, we compared and discussed the performance of four existing group variable selection methods under different simulation models, with and without the variable clustering stage. The two-stage method shows a better performance, in terms of the prediction accuracy, as well as in the accuracy to select active predictors. An athletes data is also used to show the advantages of the proposed method.
We consider the problem of variable selection in high-dimensional settings with missing observations among the covariates. To address this relatively understudied problem, we propose a new synergistic procedure -- adaptive Bayesian SLOPE -- which eff
ectively combines the SLOPE method (sorted $l_1$ regularization) together with the Spike-and-Slab LASSO method. We position our approach within a Bayesian framework which allows for simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation, despite the missing values. As with the Spike-and-Slab LASSO, the coefficients are regarded as arising from a hierarchical model consisting of two groups: (1) the spike for the inactive and (2) the slab for the active. However, instead of assigning independent spike priors for each covariate, here we deploy a joint SLOPE spike prior which takes into account the ordering of coefficient magnitudes in order to control for false discoveries. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate satisfactory performance in terms of power, FDR and estimation bias under a wide range of scenarios. Finally, we analyze a real dataset consisting of patients from Paris hospitals who underwent a severe trauma, where we show excellent performance in predicting platelet levels. Our methodology has been implemented in C++ and wrapped into an R package ABSLOPE for public use.
To analyse a very large data set containing lengthy variables, we adopt a sequential estimation idea and propose a parallel divide-and-conquer method. We conduct several conventional sequential estimation procedures separately, and properly integrate
their results while maintaining the desired statistical properties. Additionally, using a criterion from the statistical experiment design, we adopt an adaptive sample selection, together with an adaptive shrinkage estimation method, to simultaneously accelerate the estimation procedure and identify the effective variables. We confirm the cogency of our methods through theoretical justifications and numerical results derived from synthesized data sets. We then apply the proposed method to three real data sets, including those pertaining to appliance energy use and particulate matter concentration.
We consider regression in which one predicts a response $Y$ with a set of predictors $X$ across different experiments or environments. This is a common setup in many data-driven scientific fields and we argue that statistical inference can benefit fr
om an analysis that takes into account the distributional changes across environments. In particular, it is useful to distinguish between stable and unstable predictors, i.e., predictors which have a fixed or a changing functional dependence on the response, respectively. We introduce stabilized regression which explicitly enforces stability and thus improves generalization performance to previously unseen environments. Our work is motivated by an application in systems biology. Using multiomic data, we demonstrate how hypothesis generation about gene function can benefit from stabilized regression. We believe that a similar line of arguments for exploiting heterogeneity in data can be powerful for many other applications as well. We draw a theoretical connection between multi-environment regression and causal models, which allows to graphically characterize stable versus unstable functional dependence on the response. Formally, we introduce the notion of a stable blanket which is a subset of the predictors that lies between the direct causal predictors and the Markov blanket. We prove that this set is optimal in the sense that a regression based on these predictors minimizes the mean squared prediction error given that the resulting regression generalizes to unseen new environments.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
