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Least-squares fits are an important tool in many data analysis applications. In this paper, we review theoretical results, which are relevant for their application to data from counting experiments. Using a simple example, we illustrate the well known fact that commonly used variants of the least-squares fit applied to Poisson-distributed data produce biased estimates. The bias can be overcome with an iterated weighted least-squares method, which produces results identical to the maximum-likelihood method. For linear models, the iterated weighted least-squares method converges faster than the equivalent maximum-likelihood method, and does not require problem-specific starting values, which may be a practical advantage. The equivalence of both methods also holds for binomially distributed data. We further show that the unbinned maximum-likelihood method can be derived as a limiting case of the iterated least-squares fit when the bin width goes to zero, which demonstrates a deep connection between the two methods.
The projected discovery and exclusion capabilities of particle physics and astrophysics/cosmology experiments are often quantified using the median expected $p$-value or its corresponding significance. We argue that this criterion leads to flawed res
In counting experiments, one can set an upper limit on the rate of a Poisson process based on a count of the number of events observed due to the process. In some experiments, one makes several counts of the number of events, using different instrume
In this paper, after a discussion of general properties of statistical tests, we present the construction of the most powerful hypothesis test for determining the existence of a new phenomenon in counting-type experiments where the observed Poisson p
Usually, equal time is given to measuring the background and the sample, or even a longer background measurement is taken as it has so few counts. While this seems the right thing to do, the relative error after background subtraction improves when m
We present a procedure for reconstructing particle cascades from event data measured in a high energy physics experiment. For evaluating the hypothesis of a specific physics process causing the observed data, all possible reconstructi