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We present a personalized and reliable prediction model for healthcare, which can provide individually tailored medical services such as diagnosis, disease treatment, and prevention. Our proposed framework targets at making personalized and reliable predictions from time-series data, such as Electronic Health Records (EHR), by modeling two complementary components: i) a shared component that captures global trend across diverse patients and ii) a patient-specific component that models idiosyncratic variability for each patient. To this end, we propose a composite model of a deep neural network to learn complex global trends from the large number of patients, and Gaussian Processes (GP) to probabilistically model individual time-series given relatively small number of visits per patient. We evaluate our model on diverse and heterogeneous tasks from EHR datasets and show practical advantages over standard time-series deep models such as pure Recurrent Neural Network (RNN).
Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) have struggled for relevance in applications due to the challenges and cost associated with Bayesian inference. In this paper we propose a sparse variational approximation for DGPs for which the approximate posterior me
Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a posterior
It has long been known that a single-layer fully-connected neural network with an i.i.d. prior over its parameters is equivalent to a Gaussian process (GP), in the limit of infinite network width. This correspondence enables exact Bayesian inference
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes that combine well calibrated uncertainty estimates with the high flexibility of multilayer models. One of the biggest challenges with these models is that exact inf
We show that the output of a (residual) convolutional neural network (CNN) with an appropriate prior over the weights and biases is a Gaussian process (GP) in the limit of infinitely many convolutional filters, extending similar results for dense net