Uncertainties in the Lightest $CP$ Even Higgs Boson Mass Prediction in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model: Fixed Order Versus Effective Field Theory Prediction

We quantify and examine the uncertainties in predictions of the lightest $CP$ even Higgs boson pole mass $M_h$ in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), utilising current spectrum generators and including some three-loop corrections. There are two broadly different approximations being used: effective field theory (EFT) where an effective Standard Model (SM) is used below a supersymmetric mass scale, and a fixed order calculation, where the MSSM is matched to QCD$times$QED at the electroweak scale. The uncertainties on the $M_h$ prediction in each approach are broken down into logarithmic and finite pieces. The inferred values of the stop mass parameters are sensitively dependent upon the precision of the prediction for $M_h$. The fixed order calculation appears to be more accurate below a supersymmetry (SUSY) mass scale of $M_S approx 1.2$ TeV, whereas above this scale, the EFT calculation is more accurate. We also revisit the range of the lightest stop mass across fine-tuned parameter space that has an appropriate stable vacuum and is compatible with the lightest $CP$ even Higgs boson $h$ being identified with the one discovered at the ATLAS and CMS experiments in 2012; we achieve a maximum value of $sim 10^{11}$ GeV.