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تسجيل مستخدم جديدThe ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years
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Tim Palmer
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This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
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