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تسجيل مستخدم جديدOptical turbulence forecast: ready for an operational application
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One of the main goals of the feasibility study MOSE (MOdellig ESO Sites) is to evaluate the performances of a method conceived to forecast the optical turbulence above the ESO sites of the Very Large Telescope and the European-Extremely Large Telescope in Chile. The method implied the use of a dedicated code conceived for the optical turbulence (OT) called Astro-Meso-Nh. In this paper we present results we obtained at conclusion of this project concerning the performances of this method in forecasting the most relevant parameters related to the optical turbulence (CN2, seeing , isoplanatic angle theta_0 and wavefront coherence time tau_0). Numerical predictions related to a very rich statistical sample of nights uniformly distributed along a solar year and belonging to different years have been compared to observations and different statistical operators have been analyzed such as classical bias, RMSE and and more sophisticated statistical operators derived by the contingency tables that are able to quantify the score of success of a predictive method such as the percentage of correct detection (PC) and the probability to detect a parameter within a specific range of values (POD). The main conclusions of the study tell us that the Astro-Meso-Nh model provides performances that are already very good to definitely guarantee a not negligible positive impact on the Service Mode of top-class telescopes and ELTs. A demonstrator for an automatic and operational version of the Astro-Meso-Nh model will be soon implemented on the sites of VLT and E-ELT.
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In this contribution, we present the most recent progresses we obtained in the context of a long-term program we undertook since a few years towards the implementation of operational forecast systems (a) on top-class ground-based telescopes assisted
by AO systems to support the flexible scheduling of observational scientific programs in night as well in day time and (b) on ground-stations to support free space optical communication. Two topics have been treated and presented in the Conference AO4ELT6: 1. ALTA is an operational forecast system for the OT and all the critical atmospheric parameters affecting the astronomical ground-based observations conceived for the LBT. It operates since 2016 and it is in continuous evolution to match with necessities/requirements of instruments assisted by AO of the LBT (SOUL, SHARK-NIR, SHARK-VIS, LINC-NIRVANA,...). In this contribution, we present a new implemented version of ALTA that, thanks to an auto-regression method making use of numerical forecasts and real-time OT measurements taken in situ, can obtain model performances (for forecasts of atmospherical and astroclimatic parameters) never achieved before on time scales of the order of a few hours. 2. We will go through the main differences between optical turbulence forecast performed with mesoscale and general circulation models (GCM) by clarifying some fundamental concepts and by correcting some erroneous information circulating recently in the literature.
In this contribution we present the most relevant results obtained in the context of a feasibility study (MOSE) undertaken for ESO. The principal aim of the project was to quantify the performances of a mesoscale model (Astro-Meso-NH code) in forecas
ting all the main atmospherical parameters relevant for the ground-based astronomical observations and the optical turbulence (CN2 and associated integrated astroclimatic parameters) above Cerro Paranal (site of the VLT) and Cerro Armazones (site of the E-ELT). A detailed analysis on the score of success of the predictive capacities of the system have been carried out for all the astroclimatic as well as for the atmospherical parameters. Considering the excellent results that we obtained, this study proved the opportunity to implement on these two sites an automatic system to be run nightly in an operational configuration to support the scheduling of scientific programs as well as of astronomical facilities (particularly those supported by AO systems) of the VLT and the E-ELT. At the end of 2016 a new project for the implementation of a demonstrator of an operational system to be run on the two ESOs sites will start. Our team is also responsible for the implementation of a similar automatic system at Mt.Graham, site of the LBT (ALTA Project). Our system/method will permit therefore to make a step ahead in the framework of the Service Mode for new generation telescopes. Among the most exciting achieved results we cite the fact that we proved to be able to forecast CN2 profiles with a vertical resolution as high as 150 m. Such a feature is particularly crucial for all WFAO systems that require such detailed information on the OT vertical stratification on the whole 20 km above the ground. This important achievement tells us that all the WFAO systems can rely on automatic systems that are able to support their optimized use.
In this contribution I present results achieved recently in the field of the OT forecast that push further the limit of the accuracy of the OT forecasts and open to new perspectives in this field.
(35-words maximum) In this talk I present the scientific drivers related to the optical turbulence forecast applied to the ground-based astronomy supported by Adaptive Optics, the state of the art of the achieved results and the most relevant challenges for future progresses.
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Franck Lascaux
, Elena Masciadri
, Luca Fini (INAF / Osservatorion Astrofisico di Arcetri
2013
This article is the second of a series of articles aiming at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature, relative humidity)
and the optical turbulence (Cn2 and the derived astro-climatic parameters like seeing, isoplanatic angle, wavefront coherence time...). This study is done in the framework of the MOSE project, and focused above the two ESO ground-bases sites of Cerro Paranal and Cerro Armazones. In this paper we present the results related to the Meso-Nh model ability in reconstructing the surface layer atmospherical parameters (wind speed intensity, wind direction and absolute temperature, [0-30] m a.g.l.). The model reconstruction of all the atmospherical parameters in the surface layer is very satisfactory. For the temperature, at all levels, the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is inferior to 1{deg}C. For the wind speed, it is ~2 m/s, and for the wind direction, it is in the range [38-46{deg}], at all levels, that corresponds to a RMSE_relative in a range [21-26{deg}]. If a filter is applied for the wind direction (the winds inferior to 3 m/s are discarded from the computations), the wind direction RMSE is in the range [30-41{deg}], i.e. a RMSE_relative in the range [17-23{deg}]. The model operational forecast of the surface layer atmospherical parameters is suitable for different applications, among others: thermalization of the dome using the reconstructed temperature, hours in advance, of the beginning the night; knowing in advance the main direction which the strong winds will come from during the night could allow the astronomer to anticipate the occurrence of a good/bad seeing night, and plan the observations accordingly; preventing adaptive secondary mirrors shake generated by the wind speed.
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