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Link failures repeatedly induce large-scale outages in power grids and other supply networks. Yet, it is still not well understood, which links are particularly prone to inducing such outages. Here we analyze how the nature and location of each link impact the networks capability to maintain stable supply. We propose two criteria to identify critical links on the basis of the topology and the load distribution of the network prior to link failure. They are determined via a links redundant capacity and a renormalized linear response theory we derive. These criteria outperform critical link prediction based on local measures such as loads. The results not only further our understanding of the physics of supply networks in general. As both criteria are available before any outage from the state of normal operation, they may also help real-time monitoring of grid operation, employing counter-measures and support network planning and design.
Various social, financial, biological and technological systems can be modeled by interdependent networks. It has been assumed that in order to remain functional, nodes in one network must receive the support from nodes belonging to different network
In our daily lives, we rely on the proper functioning of supply networks, from power grids to water transmission systems. A single failure in these critical infrastructures can lead to a complete collapse through a cascading failure mechanism. Counte
In this review, we present the different measures of early warning signals that can indicate the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start with the mechanisms that trigger critical transitions, how they relate to warning signals
How do local topological changes affect the global operation and stability of complex supply networks? Studying supply networks on various levels of abstraction, we demonstrate that and how adding new links may not only promote but also degrade stabl
A general theory of top-down cascades in complex networks is described which explains two similar types of perturbation amplifications in the complex networks of business supply chains (the `bullwhip effect) and ecological food webs (trophic cascades