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تسجيل مستخدم جديدDiscussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques
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Nicola Scafetta
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During the last few years a number of works have proposed that planetary harmonics regulate solar oscillations and the Earth climate. Herein I address some critiques. Detailed analysis of the data do support the planetary theory of solar and climate variation. In particular, I show that: (1) high-resolution cosmogenic 10Be and 14C solar activity proxy records both during the Holocene and during the Marine Interglacial Stage 9.3 (MIS 9.3), 325-336 kyr ago, present four common spectral peaks at about 103, 115, 130 and 150 yrs (this is the frequency band that generates Maunder and Dalton like grand solar minima) that can be deduced from a simple solar model based on a generic non-linear coupling between planetary and solar harmonics; (2) time-frequency analysis and advanced minimum variance distortion-less response (MVDR) magnitude squared coherence analysis confirm the existence of persistent astronomical harmonics in the climate records at the decadal and multidecadal scales when used with an appropriate window length (110 years) to guarantee a sufficient spectral resolution. However, the best coherence test can be currently made only by comparing directly the temperature and astronomical spectra as done in Scafetta (J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 72(13), 951-970, 2010). The spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climatic oscillations is confirmed at the following periods: 5.2 yr, 5.93 yr, 6.62 yr, 7.42 yr, 9.1 yr (main lunar tidal cycle), 10.4 yr (related to the 9.93-10.87-11.86 yr solar cycle harmonics), 13.8-15.0 yr, 20 yr, 30 yr and 61 yr, 103 yr, 115 yr, 130 yr, 150 yr and about 1000 year. This work responds to the critiques of Cauquoin et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 561, A132, 2014) who ignored alternative planetary theories of solar variations, and of Holm (J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 110-111, 23-27, 2014) who used inadequate physical and time frequency analysis of the data.
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