ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

A New Approach to Inference in Multi-Survey Studies with Unknown Population Size

427   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Kyle Vincent Ph. D
 تاريخ النشر 2014
  مجال البحث الاحصاء الرياضي
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

We investigate a Poisson sampling design in the presence of unknown selection probabilities when applied to a population of unknown size for multiple sampling occasions. The fixed-population model is adopted and extended upon for inference. The complete minimal sufficient statistic is derived for the sampling model parameters and fixed-population parameter vector. The Rao-Blackwell version of population quantity estimators is detailed. An application is applied to an emprical population. The extended inferential framework is found to have much potential and utility for empirical studies.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

Abstract In Extreme Value methodology the choice of threshold plays an important role in efficient modelling of observations exceeding the threshold. The threshold must be chosen high enough to ensure an unbiased extreme value index but choosing the threshold too high results in uncontrolled variances. This paper investigates a generalized model that can assist in the choice of optimal threshold values in the gamma positive domain. A Bayesian approach is considered by deriving a posterior distribution for the unknown generalized parameter. Using the properties of the posterior distribution allows for a method to choose an optimal threshold without visual inspection.
Efficient estimation of population size from dependent dual-record system (DRS) remains a statistical challenge in capture-recapture type experiment. Owing to the nonidentifiability of the suitable Time-Behavioral Response Variation model (denoted as $M_{tb}$) under DRS, few methods are developed in Bayesian paradigm based on informative priors. Our contribution in this article is in developing integrated likelihood function from model $M_{tb}$ based on a novel approach developed by Severini (2007, Biometrika). Suitable weight function on nuisance parameter is derived under the assumption of availability of knowledge on the direction of behavioral dependency. Such pseudo-likelihood function is constructed so that the resulting estimator possess some desirable properties including invariance and negligible prior (or weight) sensitiveness. Extensive simulations explore the better performance of our proposed method in most of the situations than the existing Bayesian methods. Moreover, being a non-Bayesian estimator, it simply avoids heavy computational effort and time. Finally, illustration based on two real life data sets on epidemiology and economic census are presented.
For many decades, statisticians have made attempts to prepare the Bayesian omelette without breaking the Bayesian eggs; that is, to obtain probabilistic likelihood-based inferences without relying on informative prior distributions. A recent example is Murray Aitkins recent book, {em Statistical Inference}, which presents an approach to statistical hypothesis testing based on comparisons of posterior distributions of likelihoods under competing models. Aitkin develops and illustrates his method using some simple examples of inference from iid data and two-way tests of independence. We analyze in this note some consequences of the inferential paradigm adopted therein, discussing why the approach is incompatible with a Bayesian perspective and why we do not find it relevant for applied work.
We present a new design and inference method for estimating population size of a hidden population best reached through a link-tracing design. The strategy involves the Rao-Blackwell Theorem applied to a sufficient statistic markedly different from t he usual one that arises in sampling from a finite population. An empirical application is described. The result demonstrates that the strategy can efficiently incorporate adaptively selected members of the sample into the inference procedure.
63 - Masahiro Tanaka 2019
This study proposes a new Bayesian approach to infer binary treatment effects. The approach treats counterfactual untreated outcomes as missing observations and infers them by completing a matrix composed of realized and potential untreated outcomes using a data augmentation technique. We also develop a tailored prior that helps in the identification of parameters and induces the matrix of untreated outcomes to be approximately low rank. Posterior draws are simulated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. While the proposed approach is similar to synthetic control methods and other related methods, it has several notable advantages. First, unlike synthetic control methods, the proposed approach does not require stringent assumptions. Second, in contrast to non-Bayesian approaches, the proposed method can quantify uncertainty about inferences in a straightforward and consistent manner. By means of a series of simulation studies, we show that our proposal has a better finite sample performance than that of the existing approaches.

الأسئلة المقترحة

التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا